A Study On The Regulation Effect Of China 's Current Monetary Policy On Real Estate

In recent years, with the continuous improvement of market economic system, and thecontinuous deepening of international cooperation in China, the operation environment ofmonetary policy has changed, performing that the stock market is developing rapidly, foreignexchange reserve is increasing continuously, the percent of direct finance is rising and so on, forthese reasons, the monetary policy has appeared some new features. The real estate is animportant component of national economic system and it can also make an effect on economicdevelopment and fluctuation, so it becomes the main object of monetary policy regulationgradually, but the regulation effect is different in different steps for the monetary policy features.So this paper will research the regulatory effect of monetary policy on real estate based on thestudy of monetary policy features. According to the theory of monetary policy transmissionmechanism and intermediate targets, based on the VAR model, using the Granger Test andimpulse response analysis to study the features of monetary policy transmission mechanism.Using the qualitative analysis to study the features of monetary policy intermediate targets andtools. Then combining these features with the real estate and researching the regulatory effect ofmonetary policy on real estate based on the FAVAR model, moreover, analyzing the regulatoryeffect of the selective monetary policy based on the way of qualitative analysis. The researchconcludes are as follows:(1)Transmission mechanism of monetary policy through loan scale andstock market are the smooth canals; though the interest and exchange rate canals are not smooth,they are the important factors on monetary policy;(2)The money supply is main intermediatetargets of monetary policy and the required reserve ratio is the primary monetary policy toolswhen implementing the general macro monetary policy, these features of monetary policy arerelated to the regulatory effect of monetary policy closely;(3)The general monetary policy canmake an intense effect on real estate in short through the credit channel, though the interest canhardly make an effect, the stock market and international trade are the main factors in long term,which are the decision background and objects of monetary policy.(4)The selective monetarypolicy is not used to regulate the real estate widely, raising the minimum down-payment mayhave an good effect on real estate when combined with the required reserve ratio.