Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Monetary Policy On The Real Estate Prices

The real estate industry of our country has been in the fast growing period after about twenty years. Especially, the decision of the central government on stopping material distribution of houses in 1998 promoted continuously the dewelopment degree of the real estate market. And the speed of economic growth is raising because of the rapid development of the real estate market. It has become the important industry of national economy. Moreover, with the soaring real estate price,the government has continuously push off various control policy, but the effect is not ideal. Under the background, we need to do the research on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to real estate prices of our country according to research results at home and abroad, and need to do further empirical research and analysis on the influence of our main monetary policy tool to real estate prices. We can know which kinds of monetary policy tools in macroeconomic regulation are more reasonable and whether the monetary policy can play the role of adjusting the development of economy.Firstly, this paper states in theory monetary policy transmission mechanism and the way of monetary policy regulating economy through the estate prices. Secondly, we make a summary of the operation situation of the real estate market and monetary policy recent years and select the important monetary policy tools. We do a regression model between monetary policy tools and the real estate prices; we can get a conclusion through analyzing the model. The conclusion is that the monetary policy influences greatly the estate price are money supply and bank credit, and there are not linear relation between the rate of interest and the estate prices, and The effort of the deposit reserve rate to estate price is different from the theory; Thirdly, we do a further research of the collection between the rate of monetary policy tools and the rate of the estate price by establishing VAR model and doing impulse response analysis. One conclusion is the the growth of interest rates and the deposit reserve rate are negatively correlated with real estate prices and the correlation is minimal. The other conclusion is that the correlation is positive between the growth of bank credit, the growth of money supply and the growth of the real estate prices. The effect that monetary policy regulates and controls real estate prices is not significant. At last, we explain the reason why we can get the above conclusions,and indicate the influencing factor to the estate prices is complicated, and put forward some suggestion on how to improve the development of the real estate market.