A Study On The Relation Between The Enterprise's Supernormal Growth Rate And Financial Distress

In 2007, enterprises of high-tech industry continue to maintain the fast growth rate whlich become the important force to impetus the readjustment of the economic structure in china. According to statistical data, high-tech industry of the scale completes 1,162,100,000,000 Yuan in value along the year, grows 156,500,000,000 Yuan compared to 2006, achieves 7.8% of GDP. But at the same time, our country's high-tech enterprise development still presented not very mature condition, but presented the high failure rate of business crisis phenomenon:some high-tech enterprises are soon fall in a crisis after is foundered, some cannot even survive in one year, the high-tech enterprises failure rate is higher than the traditional class enterprise from non-high-tech industry by far.The business finance crisis phenomenon under the high-tech industry's fast growth which have the refraction to the entire capital market:so many high-level superintendents regard the growth as the matter which should be achieve maximize. They thought the enterprise's market stock value and the profit would increase along with the growth rate increasing. However, the growth rate is not quicker is better. The fast growth rate can cause enterprise's resources become to intense. only if the management realizes this result and finally takes the positive measure to control the growth rate, otherwise the fast growth rate will disadvantage the enterprise. Even causes enterprise's financial crisis .First , this article using the financial crisis theory to define the enterprises of high-tech industry class business finance crisis's concept . Design indicator system across the high-tech industry characteristic. Dimension reduction on the data by factor analsis, and extract the public factor. Utilizing Logit return method to establish finance crisis warning model for the samples. And surveys the enterprise's financial crisis ruin probability, then takes the enterprise's financial crisis ruin probability as the explanatory variable in the next return.Second, using modern sustainable growth finance theory, defined the independent variable on the defined the enterprise growth rate, the enterprise over-speed growth, the enterprise sustainable growth rate. By the data listed on the report of enterprises from high-tech industry during2004 to 2008, through multi-dimensional linear regression to exam theory supposition.This article studied this discovery, the enterprise's supernormal growth rate obviously increases the enterprise's financial crisis's probability. And the supernormal growth rate and the financial crisis probability is related. In the enterprises with low growth, the enterprise's financial risk with supernormal growth has the higher probability, thus has confirmed our theory hypothesis.So enterprise's growth rate not necessarily brings the enterprise value with the high growth rate; Enterprise's resources and its using efficiency has decided the enterprise rate of rise. Moreover, we thought that enterprise's financial risk is may carry on by the early warning through the effective financial system, and non-financial index have the important influence. The logit method on the factor analysis also enhance the rate of accuracy for early warning model.