Analyzed The Efficiency Of Housing Market Of Changsha City

The real estate market is one of the most important components of social wealth. The real estate market has a directing and basis status in national economics, due to it is strongly correlated with other fundamental matierial markets. Any changes of housing price have the dynamic acting on both macroeconomic economic and the specific economic behavior. To find out weather the real estate market is efficiency or not has a significance meaning to predict the macroeconomic trends and help us to benefit from purchasing an apartment.Aime to test the efficiency of real estate market in Changsha, this paper organized the structure as follows.At first, calculating the excess rate of return in time series with the monthly data from January 2006 to March 2009, and then statistical analyzing the return to the risk market, to test the effectiveness of residential real estate market in Changsha. The results showed that the historial rate of excess return in time series is related with the future expected profit in a certain extent, and the real return in the future. can be explained by the historical rate of excess return in time series. Through the Variance Ratio Test, the residential real estate market of Changsha rufused the hypothesys of weak efficiency, and through the Ratio of Rent to Price, the residential real estate market of Changsha rufused the hypothesys of semi-strong efficiency.Housing prices is affected by the monetary policy is a dynamic process in residential real estate market in China. To the house buyers, they usually can not feel how the macroeconomic data is working on the residential real estate market until the market is showing more obvious evidence, this is because the buyers always in the state of information asymmetry, they have to pay more time cost and transaction cost.After the first part which we do test of efficiecy of the residential real estate market of Changsha, and find out that there is inefficiency in the market. Based on the above results, I analyzed the relationship among the house price, disposable personal income and the long-term loan, short-term loan, deposit of financial institutions,eslablished the VAR model and then the VEC model, through the method of Granger causality, test the impulse response functions and variance decomposition, find out how the liquidity variables impact on house price dynamically. The results show that short-term loans on real estate prices in a sustained period of time a positive effect on short-term loans will lead to increase in real estate prices; loan balance of the total change on real estate prices are positively related to impact, but in the long term its dynamic influence gradually stabilized.