China's Inter-provincial Labor And Employment And Its Impact Factors Of Spatial Econometric Analysis

The research on the country's employment is not only an important issue for economists but also for the economic policy makers. Employment stabilization has been one of the important objectives of the macroeconomic policy-making. Through surveying a great number of the documents, this paper uses the methods of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, statistical analysis and econometric analysis to make a deep study on the interprovincial employment and its influencing factors, and preliminarily explore the spatial correlation of employment among districts.Firstly, the paper retrospects theories on employment. It illustrates employment theory of classical economics, of Keynesian economics, of monetarism economics, of new Keynesian economics in detail.Secondly, this paper presents the current situation of employment in China. The results show that the government must pay great attention to job problem because it is very severe. The proportion of primary industry employment in China is higher than that in America and in Japan. The proportion of tertiary industry employment in China is lower than that in America and in Japan. Thus, employment structure is unreasonable in China. Through comparing quantity of employment in the east, central and west region, the papers suggests that the quantity of employment in the east is more than that in the central and west, and the growth rate of employment in the east is higher than that in the central and west in recent years.And we find that in recent years, the gap between regional employment is expanded through computing poor employment and Theil index.Thirdly, based on the analysis of spatial correlation and spatial dependence using the method of Moran index, a positive analysis is made on the labour employment and its influencing factors through making the model of Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model. The results show that there is significant spatial correlation and spatial dependence existing in the province border, furthermore the spatial correlation and spatial dependence of the neighboring province play a positive role on the labour employment. However, the effect of spatial spillover is far smaller than the spatial dependence resulting from the convergence of industrial structure. In the various factors which affecting the labour employment of provinces, technical progress, the level of marketing and government expenditure have a significant effect on the provincial labor employment and play an important role in raising the level of regional employment, but the effects of the wage level and per capita disposable income are not significant. The impact of the urbanization of population on employment is little due to the particularity of China's economic and social development.Even if the effect of the industial level on the regional employment is not significant due to the existence of multicollinearity,it has many important policy implications because of the positive effect on the provincial labor employment.Finally, the policy recommendations on how to promote the provincial labor employment are put forward according to the relevant conclusions.