Research On Structural Evolution And Adjustment Of The Manufacture Of Zhejiang Province

Since the reform and opening, after three decades of rapid development, Zhejiang economy has already entered into the structure adjustment stage to promote rapid and sustained economic development. Under this background, this paper analyzed the evolution and adjustment of Zhejiang manufacture structure, with the theories of regional economics, industry economics.Firstly, the paper expounds the classification theory, evolution theory and adjustment theory of manufacture structure, and classifies 28 main manufacturing industries of Zhejiang province according to the theory from Huffman classification, trichotomic classification of industrial structure, intensive degree classification, and finishing degree classification, so as to processes the raw data of manufacturing industries and make the foundation for the empirical analysis of structure evolution and structural re-adjustment later.Secondly, after introducing Huffman proportion, light-to-heavy industry proportion, labor-intensive to technology-intensive proportion, machining coefficient and large proportion indicators, using the statistic analysis method of time series data, the author makes a detailed description and analysis of Zhejiang manufacture industry structure evolution during 1993-2008 from four aspect of Huffman classification, trichotomic classification of industrial structure, intensive degree classification, and finishing degree classification, and then analyzes Zhejiang manufacture structure evolution in two aspects: the relationship between various types of structure evolution and output growth, and the convergence of structure evolution. Four main conclusions are drawn: Firstly, some trends are found in Zhejiang manufacture structure evolution during 1993-2008, such as obvious production material intensivism, heavy chemical intensivism, capital and technology and deep processing intensivism, and among them, the most obvious trend is capital and technology intensivism; Secondly, according to the above four classification methods, certain stage characteristics exist in Zhejiang manufacture structure evolution during 1993-2008, that is, fluctuating in the previous stage, adjusting in the intermediate phase, stable developing in the later phase; Thirdly, Huffman proportion, light-to-heavy industry proportion, labor-intensive to technology-intensive proportion have linear correlation with output growth; Fourthly, Zhejiang manufacture structure is similar to national structure, with unobvious "local characteristic". Thirdly, according to the classification of intensive degree, using shift-share analysis method, the author focus on the analysis of the manufacture-type-structure and the dynamic level of its internal industries competitiveness during 1993-2008, and puts forward the corresponding adjustment strategy. Conclusion shows that: In the structural level, the comprehensive competitiveness of capital-technology-intensive manufacture is obviously better than labor-intensive manufacture, and capital-intensive manufacture is slightly better than technology-intensive manufacture ; capital and technology-intensive manufacture is the main type of Zhejiang manufacture now, gradually developing to technology-intensive as the key type change. Therefore, the overall approach of Zhejiang manufacture structure adjustment should be: Strengthen the government's macro-planning and policy guidance, develop capital-intensive and technology-intensive manufacture industries actively, and develop labor-intensive manufacturing industries selectively. In internal industrial level, such labor-intensive manufacturing industries have comparative advantage as fabricated metal products, plastic manufacture , paper and paper products industry, furniture manufacture , leather, fur, and feathers (fine hair); such capital-intensive manufacturing industries have comparative advantage as chemical fiber industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing; such skill-intensive manufacturing industries have comparative advantage as the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, transportation equipment manufacture , communication equipment, computer and other electronic equipment manufacture , instrumentation, and office-mechanical manufacturing industry, above these industries should be emphasized.Finally, after systematic and in-depth studies, corresponding suggestions are given to adjust traditional manufacture structure of Zhejiang province.