Study On Investment Risk Management Of Large Energy Project

Energy is the material basis of economic development, effective energy supply is very important to the development of national economy, In recent years,with a steady growth of our economy, energy demand is rising rapidly, and it will still rising greatly in the next decade , therefore, our state increases investment to build energy base, new chemical base to ensure energy supply. Large energy project has features of big investment, long cycle, high technical, difficult decisions and so on, at the same time, it is influenced by uncertain factors such as market, economic and policy, it has high investment risk. How to effectively identify, evaluate and prevent the risk have become problems which government, enterprises and academia concerned and need to be solved. Therefore, based on the summary of domestic and foreign relevant research, this paper comprehensively applies risk management theory, factor analysis and structural equation model, studies on investment risk management of large energy project, makes the following main research results:(1)Considering the energy industry characteristics and investment project risk, this paper identifies large energy project investment risk factors and risk consequences, proposes 23 risk factors and 8 risk consequences index, initially forms a large energy project investment risk evaluation index system. Using factor analysis method, this paper obtains five key investment risk factors and two key risk consequences of large energy project: economic policy factor, resources factor, technological factor, environmental factor, management factor, completion risk and operation risk.(2)Based on factor analysis of large energy project investment risk, according to the existing research results, this paper puts forward 19 risk path relations hypothesis of large energy project investment risk and corresponds a conceptual model. Using the structural equation modeling (SEM), verifies the conceptual model and the research hypotheses. Results show that: risk factors for completion include management, environment and resources; risk factors for operation include economic policy, management, environment, technology and completion risk. Using the weight method obtains the degree that risk factors influence the consequences, namely, completion risk: Management factors> Environmental factors> Resource factors, operation risk: Resources factor > Economic policy factor> Management factor > Environmental factor> Completion risk > Technological factor.(3)This paper puts forward prevention and control measures in view of five key investment risk factors of economic policy, resources, technology, environment and management, namely: Pay attention to market closely, analyze and forecast scientifically; emphasize resources evaluation, plan funds and human resources; choose technical equipment carefully, improve innovation ability; make emergency plans, scatter loss reasonably; perfect management system, strengthen risk awareness.