An Empirical Study And Cointegration Analysis On "Over-Savings" Phenomena Of Residents' Savings In Our Country

The residents'savings is very important for the development of national economic. The high deposits rate has supported the high-level rate of investment and accumulation rate of the capital, which is exactly the main factor of promoting the economic growth. When there are a large number of deposits in a country, stock of capital and potential output level in economy will all increase fast. However, if the residents' savings and the economic development are incongruous, it will hinder the development of economic.The "over-savings" phenomenon has appeared in our country. The latest communi que of the People's Bank of China shows: By February of 2005, the remaining sum of residents'savings of our country has already been up to as much as 12.78 million RMB, about 15.5% more than the same time in last year. Furthermore, the saving rate of our country is more than 35% for many years, which is the highest in the world. At the same time, the rate of savings growth speeds has been higher than the economic growth and resident's growth in earnings all the time. Too much residents' savings must cause the corresponding reduction of the consumption demand, disturb the economic order, hinder economy development in a healthy way. Seeing what the "over-savings" phnomena and the negative effect has been caused, which helps looking for a way that can reduce the savings effectual is the urgent affires. This text base on the real national conditions of our country mainly, which combines with the relevant theories of deposit and the past research results, makes empirical study on the residentals' savings of our country, which helps finding out the problem and solving it.Firstly, this text states the "over-savings" phenomena and the negative effects in our country, then analysis the characteristics and origins about it.Secondly, this text carrys on cointegration analyse of residents'savings and resident income (deduct the price effect), educes the error correction model of savings. Through analysing the model, there is a conclusion: there is cointegration relationship...