Research And Application Of Guangzhou City's Real Estate Market Early-warning Method

The real estate is a pillar industry in the national economy. It plays an important role in Chinese economy. Any big rise-and-down or ill-health development of the real estate market will cause enormous economic damages and bring a lot of negative influence to the society. Therefore, the establishment of the early-warning system of the real estate market has very important realistic significance. This work has already become very urgent in China. The purpose of this research is trying to set up a preliminary scientific and feasible real estate market early-warning system that can be used to objectively analyze the running orbit of the real estate. The situation and developing trend of the real estate market could be assessed and judged correctly. The abnormal fluctuation in the real estate market could be discovered and prevented at the early stages. Furthermore, the author attempt to propose macro suggestions to guide the investment and the consumption in the market in order to promote the real estate economy to running well continuously.Through the detailed review to the history and situation of the domestic and international economic early-warning development, the author analyses the basic principle and methodology base on the theory of real estate cycles. The approach of index early-warning has been thoroughly researched. According to the whole process of the real estate's running, this paper chose 13 indicators related to the real estate industry to set up the early-warning indicator system; improved the calculation method of the traditional diffusion index, design a new type of integrative diffusion index; set up the a quantitative signal lamp system of early warning which possesses the function of appraisement, forecasted the prosperity status of the real estate market in future by the method of Grey Prediction.The Guangzhou City's real estate market early-warning system has been applied using statistical data of 1995-2004. The results show that the real estate market of Guangzhou City is entering the rational development stage. It would progress to more mature stage under the macro-control of government. It is anticipated that the real estate market of Guangzhou City will steadily develop within the near future and will not fluctuate acutely.The article analyse Guangzhou property prices to the current status and forecast the future development trend. Finally this paper put forward a series of macro-control...