Study On Real Estate Bubble Measurement And Early Warning Mechanism In Kunming City

The real estate industry is an important pillar of the national economy, At the same time, the real estate industry is capital- intensive industries, and is closely connected with the financial system, real estate economic fluctuation will inevitably affect the financial system, financial risk, even form the financial crisis. Real estate bubble burst will create serious harm for a city, a country, or even the whole world. The real estate bubble research started earlier in foreign academic. It has built a relatively mature system, and has accumulated a wealth of research results. However, these results were based on foreign mature system of real estate as an object, and does not apply to C hina is more complicated and not mature real estate market. Domestic scholars for the real estate bubble research starts relatively late, the research on the subject to the data statistics, the most domestic research is based on macro data evaluation analysis, however, from the micro Angle carries on the empirical study is relatively small. In addition, due to the economic level between city and development level is different. Therefore, the effect of the real estate bubble evaluation index used is also very different. Based on this, this article choose from the perspective of macro and micro Angle of combining the method to study the urban real estate bubble, and takes kunming as an example for empirical analysis.In this paper, based on the review of research methods and results from domestic and foreign scholars about the real estate bubble, first, the macroeconomic situation to Kunming, housing market developments and the introduction of policies are described; Secondly, using the co-integration theory, combining macro data from 2002 to 2012, kunming city real estate market bubble from the macroscopic Angle measurements; At the same time, from the perspective of the theory of speculative, the degree of speculation in the property market in kunming has carried on the empirical research; Then use reasonable quantity analysis method, selecting appropriate economic indicators as early warning indicators, construction of bubble early-warning system, early warning and monitoring of kunming city real estate bubble, and predict kunming 2013 real estate bubble situation. On this basis, the use of subject investigation of micro data obtained, using the index analysis, evaluating the kunming city proper degree of the regional real estate bubble. Finally to summarize full text, the study put forwa rd the corresponding policy recommendations.Through research, this paper finally gets the following conclusions:(1)The kunming housing sales price index for non-stationary time series, and real estate sales prices and rental prices index, there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between kunming, which can determine the real estate market bubble;(2)The degree of speculation in the property market in kunming is 0.3077, is greater than the foreign academic circles is generally believed that the speculation degree is 0.2, the speculation of kunming city real estate market is serious;(3)The prices are affected by disposable income when people’s income growth, will lead to a significant growth in the short term, the impact effect is obvious; Residents when making purchase decisions, affected by the price increase is that buyers will be based on past prices to determine the future prices; Short-term interest rates negative impact on prices, and this lag effect, no significant effect, using interest rates to control housing prices have greater risk;(4)The real estate market of kunming in the cold state of the study period, 2002, 2003 and 2010, this stage of real estate in undervalued period; 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011,2012 in micro thermal state; 2006, 2007 and 2009,the real estate market in kunming, comprehensive early warning index in the normal state.(5) 2013 years, kunming within a ring, one to second, second to the third ring road, wuhua outside the third ring road, guandu outside the third ring road, rea l estate bubble degree is relatively small, but it is more than reasonable range, in mild alert; Panlong outside the third ring road, the Xishan conference three-ring bubble degree is opposite bigger, in the danger zone. C henggong district real estate bubb le is the largest, house prices reasonable gravely deviates from the basic value area, is in severe danger zone.Finally, based on the empirical research conclusion, kunming, in this paper, the real estate market healthy development put forward the follow ing Suggestions:(1) The appropriate control of housing construction, stepping up efforts in supervising to developers;(2)Using the technics of finance and tax to curb the real estate speculative demand;(3)Building the early warning information to guide the rational behavior;(4) Implementing zoning regulation policy, try to avoid "one size fits all";(5) Adjusting the housing supply structure of ordinary small and medium-sized door model matching problem;(6) Pay attention to market regulation, to perfor m "to security administration" and "regulating" policy;(7)Perfecting the housing security system.