| Steel and iron industry is the basic industry for natural economy and necessary guarantee for industrialization and town planning. Chinese steel and iron industry demand has a great increase in recent years with average increase rate of 16% from 2000 to 2004, and Chinese steel consumption has been over 300million at 2004. Chinese steel production has been increasing swiftly facing great steel demand and all kinds of capital plunged in which has caused scarce high-quality and high-plus products that need importation as well as excessive raw products. Some material such as ironstone, coke, water has run short and been higher price because of great steel production, which will bring big threaten to Chinese steel and iron industry's continual development.How many steel products we need, which kind of products we need, are what our government and companies pay attention. This paper demonstrate systemically all factors affecting steel consumption at the basis of analyzing roundly actuality of Chinese steel and iron industry, then point out that steel industry's development is related to three factors: international economic situation, domestic economic situation and competition between steel material and refills.This paper do long-term forecast for steel demand by contrast and quantitative analysis, mainly do forecast and analysis for peak of future steel demand, changing trend, gross demand, demand structure so as to estimate the long-term development trend of Chinese steel and iron industry.As to the peak of steel consumption, using contrast between foreign steel industry's characteristic and Chinese reality, this paper give conclusion that Chinese steel demand's peak time will be after 2020 and steel industry will have big space for development. Through mapkob equation to judge future steel demand's increasing trend, this paper point out that Chinese steel industry will retain increasing persistingly with periodically wave. BP neutral network method, which is nonlinear, bulky,... |
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