Research On Regional Distribution Of China’s Steel Industry Adjustment

Iron and steel industry is a basic industry for the national economic construction, of whose rational distribution will help regional economy develops in a rational and orderly way. In the background of economic transformation and ecological civilization construction, iron and steel industry is faced with excess capacity, deterioration of operating business and unprecedented pressure of environmental protection. In this context, it is significant to analyze future demand for iron and steel, judge Reasonable productivity of iron and steel and optimize development distribution of the industry. Thus, suggestions on distribution of Chinese iron and steel industry are proposed in terms of national and regional demand analysis on iron and steel, based on prediction of future demand to offer some guidance for transformation and upgrading of the industry by analyzing impact factors of industrial distribution."s-shape" pattern and departmental requirements analysis are used to analyze and predict national and rational steel demand of China in next20years. Comprehensive analysis of economic development, urbanization rate, industrial structure, infrastructure shows that steel demand of China has entered the peak area and the total demand quantity of steel is between730to750million tons. The prediction shows China’s steel demand will experience a long-term stable term after a slow decline, enter in a downtrend referred to herein as the after-plateau, when the demand will be maintaining stable at about600～660million tons, according to the "s-shape" pattern. According to departmental requirements analysis, the prediction shows that the ration of construction will turn down quickly to38%in consumption structure of iron and steel in2035,while ratio of machine manufacturing, and some strategic emerging industries will go up.The country is divided into four regions:east coast regions, central regions, southwestern regions and south western regions. And the divide standard is based on economic development and steel transportation radius. Analyzing economic development and consumption in steel of each region, consumption tendency in each region are predicted using "s-shape" pattern. The results indicate that east coast regions has reached the region of peak value which still keep relatively high levels of steel demand quantity with downtrend of demand rate; the other three regions will keep growth trend and reach the peak region during2017to2020with470～490kg,320kg and350～380kg of capital consumption of steel respectively.By analyzing national distribution of iron and steel industry, the feature of distribution is that industry in north is more than that in south, in East more than that in West, in continent is more than that in coast regions. Considering the impact factors of industrial distribution, the decisive factors are resource such as iron ore and scrap steel and demand. While environment factor will have a relatively great effect on distribution of future iron and steel industry.This paper analyze export trend of national iron and steel product and predict tendency of future reasonable productivity of the industry. Generally it is reasonable to maintain800-900million tons capacity. But in Production structure, the proportion of electric steel will have a big change with the supply ability of scrap steel resources improving rapidly after2020. Proportion of electric steel capacity will reach55%.The paper also predict rational capacity distribution in different regions. Steel production will decrease in east coast regions and its electric steel proportion will rise rapidly, reaching70%in2035. While, for the other three regions, increasing the steel capacity will mainly depend on the industrial transfer in east coast region. And the capacity enlargement is mainly to meet regional demand.