Research Of The Iron And Steel Logistics Demand Forecasting Methods Dased On The Value And The Actual Volume Of Goods

Iron and steel industry is an important basic industry of the national economy, and supports the realization of industrialization. It is a technology-intensive, capital -intensive and energy-intensive industries. It has very important practical significance for doing a good job in the iron and steel logistics planning, to adapt to the new situation of iron and steel market, the promotion of industrial, agricultural, transportation, construction, machine building, military industry and other sectors to the industrial revolution and development, and promoting national economic development and the level of national defense strength. The development of iron and steel logistics must have a scientific and rational planning, and the demand forecasting is the basis for the preparation.First of all, the demand of iron and steel logistics is a derived demand. The size of the demand is closely related to its origin demand. That is, the demand for iron and steel products has a great relationship. The paper determine the research directions of the demand forecasting of the iron and steel logistics mainly by learning to the research of the status of logistics demand domestic and overseas, and especially the analysis for the research of the iron and steel industry.Secondly, the paper analyzes the influence of various factors of the iron and steel logistics demand, this article mainly analyze the factors from several aspects such as the upstream industry of the iron and steel enterprises, logistics infrastructure, macro-economic factors, iron and steel industries and policies and regulations. The paper established the index system of the iron and steel logistics demand forecasting, that is, the actual volume of goods and the value of iron and steel logistics demand, by the analyze for the influence factors of the iron and steel logistics demand and the current status of China's iron and steel logistics statistical, as well as the availability of data. Finally gets the new index that is the efficiency of iron and steel logistics.In recent years, the value of the logistics demand mostly measured by the two measure system that is the actual volume of goods and the value of iron and steel logistics demand. In this paper, in the sense of the actual volume of goods, the iron and steel logistics demand register as the workload under the different link and function, such as freight, inventory, processing capacity, distribution capacity; In the sense of the value, the iron and steel logistics demand is the comprehensive reflection of the value of all the services all of the logistics link. Such as logistics costs, logistics revenue, added value from the supply chain. The actual volume of goods and the value are essentially the quantitative index and the quality index of the iron and steel logistics demand. Therefore, we chose steel cargo to show the actual volume of goods, and the iron and steel logistics cost to show the value.In addition, iron and steel logistics efficiency is an indicator of the situation that been used to measure the transport of iron and steel logistics system, its essence is a reflection of the situation and level of logistics. It can be directly used for analysis and evaluation of iron and steel logistics. This paper will be based on the cargo of steel, iron and steel logistics costs and iron and steel production to obtain the two new indexes that is steel logistics costs per ton of cargo and logistics cost per ton, and use them to show the iron and steel logistics efficiency.Finally, the paper analyzed the characteristics of steel cargo and iron and steel logistics cost. It analyzed and compared the characteristics of ways to forecasting and serviceable range, and established a suitable forecasting model. The paper has done the research by using the data of China's iron and steel logistics from 1997 to 2008, and used the Matlab, SPSS data processing tools to process these data.