A Study On The Outside Time Lag In Monetary Policy Of China

The effect lag is one of the important factors affecting the validity of the monetary policy. A systematic study on the outside time lag has a theoretical meaning and the important practical value to the increase of the effective adjustment and validity of the monetary policy. The dissertation explores formation mechanism of the outside time lag in effect of monetary policy, from which we find the main factors affecting it. After reviewing the performance during the period 1994—2005, it carries out the positive research , through the establishment of the VAR model , to analyze the outside time lag in the monetary policy of china with the impulse response function and variance decomposition. Finally some measures are suggested according to the causes of time lag in the monetary policy of china.In the sector of analyzing the formation mechanism of the outside time lag in effect of monetary policy, it concludes that some subjective and objective factors lead to the outside time lag whether it is from the money channel or from the credit channel. The factors include inside time lag, market behavior of the commercial banks, market behavior of the microeconomic subject, the means of the macro financial control and the development of the financial market, etc. All these factors exist in china. The impact lag of the monetary supply Ml and the credit loan on GDP are estimated with the quarterly data from 1994 to 1999 and from 2000 to...