A Study On Real Exchange Rate Misalignment Of RMB And Its Economic Effects

To scientifically valuate whether the exchange rate of a country's money is reasonable, the key is to judge whether the real effective exchange rate coincides with the equilibrium real exchange rate. In an open economy, if the real effective exchange rate deviates from the equilibrium real exchange rate, namely the real exchange rate misalignment happens, this will influence the external and internal equilibrium of a country's economy and causes huge welfare cost. The expectation for RMB's devaluation caused by Asian financial crises in 1997 and the case that RMB is compelled to appreciate now make the study on real exchange rate misalignment of RMB more and more significant.In the recent years, the literatures studying on the equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB have been welling up. These literatures generally estimate the real exchange rate misalignment of RMB, but most of them don't analyze theoretically and investigate empirically the real exchange rate misalignment of RMB and its economic effects from a long time series.This paper starts off from three actual focuses about real exchange rate of RMB, chooses the real exchange rate misalignment of RMB and its economic effects as the researching objects, sets the internal and external equilibrium of the macro-economy as the analyzing jumping-off point, uses the equilibrium analysis method to theoretically analyzes the real exchange rate and the equilibrium real exchange rate and deeply elaborates three types of the real exchange rate misalignment, two causes as well as a series of economic effects.In order to empirically research the real exchange rate misalignment of RMB and its economic effects, this paper collects the quarterly data about Chinese basic economic variables, uses the behavior equilibrium exchange rate model and the cointegration theory to calculate the quarterly state of the real exchange rate misalignment of RMB from 1984 to 2004 as well as investigates the influences of the real exchange rate misalignment of RMB on export, import, trade balance, FDI and foreign exchange reserve by using the growth rate of Chinese main economic variables in the 21 years...