The Analysis Of Risk In Port Investment Project

As the scale of modern port investment project becoming l(?)rger, the investment risk becomes more and more uncontrollable, the specialties involved becomes more and more diversified, the relationships in the project becomes more and more complicated. And the risk in port investment projects becomes more and more difficult to control, so it is very important to control risk of port investment project effectively with modern management technique, especially with systems engineering techniques.On the basis of analyzing the characteristics of port investment project, this thesis puts its emphasis on the importance of building project management system with the risk management, and describes the whole frame of risk management. Then this thesis evaluates the risks on port investment projects by two steps.The first step, this thesis evaluates the whole risk level of the port investment project. On the risk analysis, this thesis sets an index system for evaluation. The system comprehensively reflects risks on port investment projects. It has taken all the risks, through the construction to the running process of port investment projects into account, and numbers the index by experts investigation, then valuates the whole risk level of the project by fuzzy mathematics methods which is comprehensive, clear, effective and clean.The second step, this thesis appraises the financial risk on port investment project. This thesis compares the traditional method with the risk compensation method theoretically, then applies the two methods into the same case. During the process of risk assessment, the thesis discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods.The creative point in this thesis is to identify the port investment risk constitution, to set up the risk index in port investment system, to analyse port investment risk with a fuzzy mathematics way. According to the result of a fuzzy mathematics way, this thesis analysis financial risk by net present value way.There are many problems in risk management on port investment project, which are still worth researching. Much work, such as risk identification and analysis, is very important. The method of risk analysis and assessment will be more perfect by being put into the practice. Therefore, the thesis tries to provide a practical method for port investment project management, and modify it to be more prefect in the practice.