A Study On Regional Risk Assessment Based On Fuzzy Mathematics

There is a very real Significance for reducing the overall risk to set up regional risk evaluation index system and put up fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of which will help the government put up regional planning, distribute resources rationally and adjust layout, optimize layout, disperse layout to the regional risk sources. In this paper, the author adopts quantitative evaluation methods and introduces fuzzy math theory to setting up risk assessment index system of Chemical Industry Park and using in the actual evaluation.This paper takes Dalian Jinzhou Chemical Industry Park as an example, which based on the actual scene inspection, according as relevant standards and criterion to determine the impact of risk factors of regional security and set up Chemical Industry Park comprehensive evaluation factors index system. Based on factors gather and remarks gather, Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method is used to set up fuzzy matrix. Using model M (?, V) to put up the fuzzy matrix and the weight vector synthesis, fuzzy transform and come out the results of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation. Further, Chemical Industry Park safety level is elicited in accordance with fuzzy evaluation method.In this paper, remark gathers of the influence risk factor scores are divided into five levels: very serious, serious, in general, a slight, very slight.AHP is also introduced in this paper, through the analysis of the factors contained in complex systems and mutual relations, on the basis of the expert score, and through comparative judgment between two factors, determining the relative important factor at every level of the factors and setting up the judgment matrix. Get importance orders from every arrangement factors to previous arrangement by calculating the most eigenvalue and eigenvector of the judgment Matrix, then determine the weight vector.Grey Interval Degree is introduced in this article to determine weight vector of arrangement analysis, through calculating correlation coefficient and correlation grade of experts mark and index system, quantitative analysis of both correlation from the whole, reducing mistakes which is made by subjective factors and choosing the value of weight vector more scientifically and rationally.Based on the evaluation results, the practical level of the index system is validated and the security situation of Chemical Industry Park is educed. Propose enterprises take corresponding security countermeasures and measures, in order to eliminate or mitigate systemic risks and provide help for enterprise to realize standardization and science of security technology and security management.