Based On The Theory Of Gray System Of Forecasting Model For Demand Of Real Estate Construction Land

Demand of real estate is a decisive factor in the property market balance of supply and demand ,so this article based on the theory of gray system to forecast demand of residential real estate and demand of residential real estate construction land . It analyses affecting factors for the demand of residential real estate, grasping the different factors that influence the extent of the demand of residential land ,providing an accurate basis for the use of residential land of planning and control; It also forecasts the demand of retail commercial real estate and demand of construction land , analyzing factors that affect demand of retail commercial real estate, grasping the impact of different factors on the level of demand for retail commercial real estate and retail commercial real estate construction land to provide an accurate basis for the planning and control.This article bases on the theory of gray system , and gray dynamic system is the core of the theory. Commonly the theory is used in the time series prediction. This article establishes a new model for forecasting demand of urban residential and retail commercial real estate and demand of construction land .The core of the forecasting model is GM (1,1) model. GM (1,1) model is the most basic and widely used gray dynamic model, it forecasts the gray course of changing within a certain position and the relevant time. In the basis of forecasting model ,this article analyze the demand factors of residential and retail commercial real estate ,so that many factors can be quantified and compared the correlation, and arranges in accordance with the order from the biggest to the smallest to grasp the impact of significant factors that affected demand .Moreover to regulate the market supply and demand balance.The article creates a new forecasting model of residential and retail commercial real estate and construction land . The average difference of the demand of the new residential between model generated value and the actual value is 6.17% ,and precision of the model prediction if 93.83% Moreover, the grades of the average residual and the post-mortem examination were good; The average difference of the demand of the retail commercial real estate between model generated value and the actual value is 0.03% ,and precision of the model prediction if 99.97% Moreover, the grades of the average residual and the post-mortem examination were good。Two forecasting models are all in line with the fact and can predict the future value objectively and well .In the...