The Study Of Land-Demand Quantity Forecasting Based On Gray-Markov Combinatorial Model

The land-demand quantity forecasting is a main and nuclear part,and a very important basic link as well in the overall planning of land-use. Based on the systematic analysis about trendency of land-use,employing moden forecasting technology,the forecasting of land-demand quantity can offer the land-use planning's establishment of policy-decision support.The research purpose of the paper is that construct a scientific forecasting model that suitable for the forecasting of land-demand quantity,and make an actual analysis of Qinzhou city,supplying several policy-decision support for regional land-use overall planning.In consideration of the limit of single approach,combining the GM(1,1) and the markov chain model ,the paper constructed Gray-Markov associative forccasting model in order to achieve the advantage complementary and made the forecasting result more just.The research results are as follows:(1) having combined the GM(1,1) and markov chain model,constructed the Gray-Markov associative forecasting model;(2)having analysed the trendency of land-use in Qinzhou city,grasped it's change characteristic,and reached a conclusion that the main driving factors are population growth,economic development and the adjustment in agricultural structure;(3)having employed the Gray-Markov model,actually analysed the land-demand quantity in Qinzhou city;(4)having analysed the potentialities of land supply in Qinzhou city;(5)having offered several proposals for land supply and demand balance in Qinzhou city. Though study,we draw the conclusion that as a new and effective method in land-demand forecasting , the Gray-Markov forecasting model can supply a scientific method for regional land-demand quantity forecasting.