The Demand Forecasting Model Study Of The Railway Locomotives

ABSTRACT:Railway is the most important infra structure of the country, it plays a key role in transport system,and it is the main mode of transport which fits to economic and geographic characteristics and people’s income level of China. Railway rolling stock is the material basis of railway transport supply achievement. But as a transportation carrier railway rolling stock, there are still problems such as irrational purchase, idle, and low efficiency, lack of scientific evaluation system of equipment purchase. In the era market economy, on one hand,the railway transport capacity to meet the needs o f departments, on the other hand we must also optimize social benefits. According to the different purchase object, there are mainly divided to locomotive, passenger train, wagon. The main prediction method of this article is linear regression method, the outcome of the gray prediction method, and then use combination forecasting to dereference. The return value is total ownership of railway locomotives, by analyzing the history ownership, equipment renewal and moder,we will finally get a reasonable predictive figure.Take the Forecasting of railway locomotives as example, through analyzing railway mileage, passenger turnover, freight mileage of2020,and put them into the linear regression equation, then taking advantage of gray prediction and the combination forecasting to calculate the total ownership of locomotives in2020. Consider the life of the locomotive, and railway locomotives’s update out number.we can get the final calculation of the amount of the purchase of railway locomotives, a reasonable annual purchase needs of locomotives.