A Forewarning Research Of Risk In China Coal Energy Market

It is a long time for utilizing the coal energy in China. Due to the comparatively abundance reserves, the coal accounts for a great proportion in our country's energy consumption structure. And it will still be the dominated energy in a long period. However, because of the historical reason, coal industry has many problems and the competitive strength is weak. So the development of coal energy market is slow, the ability of resisting risk is weak. Furthermore along with the speedy development of domestic economy, demand of energy increases steadily, but owing to the restriction of resource condition and energy exploitation technique, the growth of oil consumption mainly depends on importation, energy security encounters a big challenge. Therefore basing on the internal coal energy to reduce the unstable factors of economic development is an inevitable trend. In view of the two facets, strengthen China coal energy market construction and forewarn the risk state, then take the relevant countermeasures to control risk, ensure well-balanced working of coal energy market and demand of power have positive theoretical and practical meanings.Basing on risk forewarning theory and energy security theory, firstly the review and analysis to China coal industry are taken in the paper. Then the important station of coal industry and the existent problems are indicated. Secondly the trend of coal energy market is concluded from supply, demand and price three facets: demand is increasing, effective supply is deficient, so that price continually rises. Thirdly the risk factors in China coal energy market are identified as nine facets. Then some sub-factors are been chosen from each factor to form a risk forewarning index system and comparing method is utilized to identify the significance of each factor. Fourthly fuzzy static model is taken to forewarn the risk state and the conclusion is got: the risk state of China coal energy market is yellow risk state. At the same time, the maladjustment index is utilized to establish entropy Markov chain model, the conclusion of the immediate-period forewarning is accord with the static model. Finally, the relevant countermeasures are proposed.