Research On Financial Early Warning Of The Chinese Listed Manufacturing Industry Companies Based On Mixed Indicator

Manufacturing has become a pillar industry of China’s national economy and the dominant sector in China’s economic growth in economic restructuring after nearly three decades of rapid development. However, the financial crisis continues to show in the rapid development of listed Companies. It is intensified that the manufacturing sector become a listed company "ST" section or even forced to withdraw from the market situation due to financial crisis. Under this background, build a finance early warning indicator system which has a strong predictive ability to manufacturing industry, make the effective and reasonable combination of financial indicators and non-financial indicators, speaking of the company various benefits counterparts, has the very vital practical significance.This thesis is divided into five chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the background, significance and the purpose of thesis topic. Then brief the research method and framework of this thesis. The literature reviews at home and abroad are also described in the end of chapter 1. Chapter 2 describes the theory of financial warning mechanism and explains why we choose hybrid indicators and build dynamic warning system. Chapters 3 select the hybrid indicators from financial indicators and non-financial indicators. It adopting theory and methods to select Index, in order to screen indicators differences at different period before the crisis as a financial early-warning features variable. Chapter 4 is the core part of this thesis. Firstly it introduce Fisher discriminant method, then it use the sample data from the T-2 and T-3 years respectively to establish Fisher discriminate functions.And then it determine the effectiveness of the discriminate functions. At the end of this chapter it recognizes the practical value of the two-phase early warning function. Chapter 5 proposed early Warning measures and suggestions based on the characteristics of manufacturing industry. Conclusion is the last part of the thesis. It summarized and evaluated the whole research and pointed out the shortcomings of the research.