On Risk Assessment System For Operation Of The Vessels

With the liberalization of world trade and the accelerating process of economic integration,the world shipping industry has achieved great development.Following the development,the gross tonnage of the world merchant ships has been on constant increase,besides,the growing trend that the ship tends to be large,automatic and with high speed is obvious.At the same time,the accident induced by a variety of sea traffic disasters and sea water pollution has caused severe damage on the marine environment,marine life and even survival of the human to which the international community has attached great importance to.In order to lower the risk of the ship operation process and reduce the marine environmental damage,loss of human life and property,it is urgent to make a risk evaluation of the ship operation system,thus to identify the weak link and further adopt some effective measuresThe paper first gives a review and summarization of the relevant dynamic research of the risk assessment model by comparing the characteristics of various risk assessment techniques.In view to the research purpose,the paper selects the Fault Tree Analysis(FTA) and data envelopment analysis(DEA),respectively,as ship operational risk probability and risk program decision-making research methods.Next, the paper gives a brief introduction of the fundamental knowledge of the ship operation system,which provides a theoretical basis of the qualitative and quantitative analysis for the following parts.After consulting a lot of references,the paper applies the fault tree analysis to make an evaluation and research on the ship operation risk,beside,it establishes the corresponding fault tree model,then it obtains the minimal cut sets of the Fault Tree by using the Semanderes algorithm,which contribute to analyze the weak link in the ship operation system.Next,by taking a certain district as example,it makes a calculation of the sea accident probability and the significance of various primary events by using MATLAB software,furthermore,it proposes measures to lower the probability of the sea operation risk after analyzing the calculation result.The final step of risk evaluation is the decision-making of the risk program. Basing on the research of previous chapters basis,the paper derives the optimum decision-making program of the risk prevention through the use of data envelopment analysis method,that is,on the basis of minimizing the cost of risk prevention or having fixed basis,a minimum of the overall operation risk can be achieved.