Study Of Real-Option-Game To Logistics Project Investment Decision

Project investment, especially strategic project investment, has irreversible features. In the rapidly changing environment, the risk of misplay caused by uncertain factors is becoming much bigger. Therefore, the flexibility of investment is the important decision-making principle which must be followed by enterprise. However, the traditional decision-making principle for project investment is NPV method, which may lose sight of the flexibility of investment and ignore many crucial practical factors (such as future uncertainty of the invested project, dissymmetry of information and so on.) This will usually underestimate the value of project investment and make the investor lose many investment opportunities. Based on real option pricing theory, real option game theory evaluates the project value concluding real option, and meanwhile, uses game theory and modeling method to manage the investment. Real option game theory is the newest development of decision-making method for project investment, which can deal with many uncertain investments decision-making problems. By analyzing, creating or utilizing the cost and expected profit of investment opportunities to decide whether invest or not, real option game theory becomes the hotspot of related research, because it has the flexibility of scientific management, and effectively avoids the misplay of decision-making for project investment.This thesis takes the logistic project as investment target, and aims to use real option game theory method to analyze the problems of uncertain investment decision-making, so as to build a real option game theory model for logistic project investment. Firstly, the thesis gives a general description of logistic project investment; secondly, points out the shortage of the traditional decision-making for investment and compares with real option game theory; thirdly, expatiates systemically real option game theory, which is the newest development of modern investment theory; and then, makes the real option game model for logistic project investment; finally, by analyzing...