Monte Carlo Simulation In Manganese Dry Longtan Investment Risk Analysis Application

Mineral resource is one of the fundamental elements for human beings and social development. However, mining engineering projects are always in need of high investment in a long period and full of great risk. So it is necessary to make reasonable economic evaluation and risk analysis for these projects. First of all, a risk analysis offers scientific perspectives when judging decisions for new mines. Secondly, both the economic evaluation and risk analysis can help us better control some important risk factors involved in mining projects, so that we can avoid possible risks and achieve a return by management methods. Now, the risk research on investment projects in mining has become an important research field at home and abroad. Based on the economic evaluation of mining technology and related theories in technical economics, engineering economics as well as probability analysis, we study on the manganese ore mining investment in Ganlongtan, Nanhua County. In combination with the previous research, details of our research include the following subjects:1. This paper discusses the technical and economic evaluation of mathematical theory and several methods of assessment at present. In the traditional project and to study this mine engineering projects on the basis of economic evaluation, several methods are compared.2. The paper discusses the current mine economic evaluation indexes. In engineering economics on the basis of the theory, combined with the actual situation of engineering project evaluation, focuses on the net present value, internal rate of return of five economic evaluation indexes.The mine project risk analysis theory is discussed. In the engineering project management and based on the theory of risk management, this article from the definition of risk, risk identification, risk factors and control measures in four areas of the mine risk management systematically research the mine project risk analysis theory is discussed. In the engineering project management and based on the theory of risk management, this article from the definition of risk, risk identification, risk factors and control measures in four areas of the mine risk management undertook comparative systematic research.3. This thesis discussed about the risk analysis method. The current mining technology economic evaluation of profit and loss balance analysis and sensitivity analysis, and discussed their advantages and disadvantages. Secondly, introduces three kinds of traditional risk analysis methods. Finally, the risk analysis is often used in probability analysis are discussed in this paper, it is this to make Monte Carlo simulation analysis based.4. This paper analyzes the principles and steps of Monte Carlo simulation analysis in detail. According to the basic cost of mining investment projects and general financial evaluation, establish proper mining project net present value model, and then on this foundation, analyzed mine risk analysis of some main variables and its probability distribution. Finally, the article did not use more sophisticated computer VB programming language, but used in a conventional electronic form Excel loading a software to carry on the simulation analysis, the result is more intuitive, is also more convenient to use.5. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation analysis method, which has the advantages of simple operation office software, more comprehensive ground to the South County Longtan manganese dry to undertake the risk is analyzed. Through the project example this paper finally simulation analysis of project net present value mean value is4289300Yuan, than the original mining design of the4512500Yuan. The reason for this is to involve the manganese ore by the main variables as a probability analysis, is better for economic evaluation results of simulation analysis. This paper discusses the related risk factors of mining investment project influence, put forward to control the countermeasure of the risk.