The Empirical Study Of The Default Risk On Personal Mortgage Loans

Recent years, with the opening of China' s financial industry, the competition of financial products is serious. Personal mortgage loans on houses or cars gradually become the emphasis of national commercial banks' marketing. At the same time, as the personal loan growing, default risk turns into an actual question which prevents commercial banks to distribute personal financial products.Now the domestic research about default risk of personal mortgage loans mostly concentrated on analyzing the default causes and offering the suggestions. Logical reasoning methods widely applied in these fields. The papers which apply statistical or econometrical technologies to handle data usually can' t be found easily. Though empirical researches about the data of personal default loans, the author in this paper try to find out the factors relating to the default risks, to construct the models to evaluate and measure the degree of default risk, and to give some suggestions to banks and other related institutions. In the methodology, the paper bases on the combination between qualitative and quantitative analysis. In this paper firstly theory hypothesis will be put out, then regression models will be constructed, and eventually some conclusions will be put up.In the preface, the author simply introduces to us the background, the context, and the meaning of this thesis. The first part is the summary of literature in which the author discusses some theories and conclusions about personal mortgage loans by the three main clues the author sums up. In the second part, the author puts up standpoints about the thesis, thoroughly describes object, context, methodology and techniques of this paper, and stipulates the framework of the following analysis. The third part of the paper is statistical analysis firstly in which discriminate analysis and binary logistical analysis based on data have be applied and then in which the author has carried on multinomial logistic analysis by constructing the benchmark "Compositive Evaluation " . After the above summary about related theories and analysis based on data, in the last conclusion part, the author has done two evaluations on factors and models, and has made some suggestions that how to avoid default risk of personal mortgage loans for commercial banks and related institutions.The author hopes that this paper can be used for practical and quantized reference for commercial banks and related institutions on carrying on the personal credit extension.