Research On Influential Factors For Default Risk Of House Mortgage Loan

Since 1980s,house mortgage loan prospers with the development of real estate market, simultaneously , both academic and bank field pay more and more attention to the default risk of house mortgage loan. First, the essay uses average discrepancy analysis method to find the average discrepancy between different kinds of default factors of default loans and normal loans, then takes advantage of factor analysis method to summarize the previous 14 samples into five more dependent and comprehensive factors and uses logistic model for econometrical purpose with dealing with the new factor data . At last ,the essay uses judgement analysis with the establishment of judgement function to test whether if the new loan is default.Through econometrical analysis, the conclusion is as follows:.First, the result of average discrepancy analysis indicates that, among selected fourteen factors, six factors as loan value ratio,down-payment ratio,marital status,academic level,monthly income, architectural area are discrepant for average value of two kinds of loans, eight factors as loan value,the total value of the house, the tenure of loan,available house or future house,age,loan rate,gender,the repayment manner are not significantly discrepant among the two kinds of loans. This indicates that six factors as loan value ratio, down-payment ratio, marital status, academic level,monthly income,architectural area are influential for default,and the other eight factors are not greatly influential for default.Secondly, the result of logistic model analysis indicates, among the five new factor, comprehensive factor, loan feature factor, gender and academic level factor are the critical factors which influences the default, especially the gender and academic level factor which exerts great influences on default. This shows that comprehensive factor representative of four factors as monthly income, Loan value, architectural area and the total value of the house have relatively great explanatory power of default, with every increment of one percent for comprehensive factor, the rate of default chance will reduce for two percent. Loan feature factor representative of four factors as the tenure of loan, loan value ratio, down-payment ratio, available house or future house also have explanatory power of default ,with every increment of one percent for loan feature factor, the rate of default chance will increase by 8.8 percent. Gender and academic level factor representative of gender and academic level has the greatest explanatory power for default, with every increment of one percent for gender and academic level factor, the rate of default chance will increase by 49.3 percent.Thirdly, with combination of average discrepancy analysis and logistic model analysis, we think academic level variable exerts the greatest influence on default, and takes a great weight, and then the four variables as the monthly income, architectural area, loan value and down-payment ratio. Hence we get the five variables which have great explanatory power on default ultimately.