National Economic Risk Of Export Credit Insurance

Since the 1990's, the economic crisis broke up frequently, but the traditional evaluation of national economic risk didn't forecast the crisis correctly, led to a great lost. In this paper, we put forward a new system called the appraisal of national economic risk in export credit insurance. Its background is the International economic environment and base upon the income and expenses balance. The main innovation of this paper is that we propose a new system stressing the ability of reimbursing the foreign loan and carry the analysis on Thailand and Mexico, moreover we propose certain measures.There are four parts in this paper: In the first part, we point out the limitation of the traditional methods and propose the new system; In the second part, we establish the new system firstly, Afterwards we take Thailand and Mexico as the examples, we empirically analyze the veracity of the new system, it conforms to the export credit guarantee service; In the third part, we carry the analysis on Thailand and Mexico. At last, in the fourth part, we propose certain measures in view of our country export credit guarantee service.Along with the economic development of China and joining WTO, the economy of China melts into the world economic competition flood tidely day by day. As the important symbol which can weighs the level of a country's economy development and manifests the ability of its participating the world economic activity, the export trade is playing a pivotal role in the economic development. In the future, the export trade of China will develop stably, not only rely on the enhancement of exports' own technology content, the quality and the performance and so on, but also rely on the support of financial insurance especially the export credit insurance. The key of the export credit insurance function displaying fully, lies into controlling the insurance risk. After enter the overseas market, the main risk which the enterprise of China face has from the management risk transferred to the more complex international competition risk, in these risks, the national economy risk may be the most unanticipated, the losses cause to the enterprise will be also the biggest. Global financial crisis, debt crisis as well as trade friction and so on initiate the national economy risk, has become the new risk factor. The new system established in this paper not only can expand the scale of insurance under the export credit insurance venture capital and bring the role of the export credit insurance into supporting the country export development furthest, but also can avoid the great loss in the operating development, guarantee the safety of the country risk fund and implement the steady management of export credit insurance operation. In order to consummate the export credit insurance more and more, safeguard the export trade developed smoothly, avoid the risk of investor, bank and exporter, the export credit insurance organization should utilize the new system to analyze the national economy risk and direct the speculative trade action of Chinese investor, bank and exporter correctly.