Study On The Early-Warning Of China Commercial Bank Credit Risk

Credit risk is also the possibility of loss of fiance institution investor and the other side because of the loaner, bond publisher or one side in the fiance deal not performing the agreement ,it is one of risks of felling back.With the globalization of the finance and fluctuation of the financial market, the banks of various countries have faced the challenges of the unprecedented credit risks. The World Bank's study on global banks' crisis shows that the main reason causing the bank's bankrupting is the credit risk. After our entrance into WTO, in face of competition and the government supervision, domestic commercial banks have to strengthen the Early-Warning management of the credit risk.It is very useful to avoid explosion of banking credit crisis that an Early-Warning system of risks in commercial bank should be established. Moreover, it is instructive for promoting the theory to study on banking credit risk Early-Warning management. And the Early-Warning system of Credit Risk is important to make commercial bank stronger against risks.The Internal Rating Based Approaches is the basic of credit risk rating system, which is used to dissolve the credit risk in our commercial banks. But we should admit the fact that there are so many defects in the risk management system under using, as in the rating indexes, rating method, the process of rating result checking-out and so on. In order to keep up with the advanced approaches which international banks use nowadays, in this paper we present a new credit risk rating model, based on Principal Components and fizzy BP nerve network.The dissertation chooses the credit risk of loan business as its studying object, to which the advanced international banking measuring methods and managing experience of the credit risk are related. Starting with basic concepts, the dissertation emphatically analyses the current situation and its contributing factors of credit risks of loan business of the Chinese commercial banks systematically by means of theory and positivism. Meanwhile the historically lengthwise comparison as well as domestically and internationally horizontal comparison is made to analyse the measurement, assessment and management of credit risk. Using advanced practical experience and research achievement for reference dissertation also considers the domestic banking development subsequently makes some suggestions to improve the management of credit risks of loan business in our country's commercial banks.