The Research On Enterprises' Financial Index Early-warning Model And Its Application

Marketable economy of intense competition while to bring the opportunity to the enterprise, also causes the enterprise to face with a bigger risk and crisis. Realizing the signal of the financial crisis early, recognizing the financial risk of enterprise, it enables the operator take the effective action to prevent bankruptcy at the financial crisis which appears embryonic stage, it is very important. Therefore, researching on finance early-warning system, it has not only the theoretically value, also has the instructive function to financial control practice for enterprise. Utilizing the financial index in the financial early-warning, it can demonstrate and reflect the financial risk of enterprise very well. We can believe that it can play a certain role in the financial risk judgement and guard for enterprise.On the foundation of reviewing enterprise finance early-warning research, the thesis proposed that utilizes the financial index in the financial early-warning. Using index in the financial early-warning in the microcopic economy subject, the origin is in the cycle undulatory theory and booming theory in the macroscopic economy early-warning. The cycle undulatory theory tell us that there is certain periodicity in economical development. This kind of periodic performance almost simultaneously expands for the many economic activity, then universal declines, contracts and recovers, thus influend economy development. In the foundation of cycle undulatory theory, the booming theory founded the booming index, using it to monitor the influence of macroscopic economy by cyclical undulation. The thesis synthesizes these two viewpoints, intruduces the thought of index early-warning to microscopic economy, inquires about a new viewpoints of the enterprise finance early-warning from another angle.The choice of early-warning indicator is the foundation of establishing the financial index early-warning model. The thesis chosen 24 financial indicators to constructe the financial index early-warning indicators system. It discussed method of determination of the financial early-warning marginal value and measure of the financial early-warning individual index. It aslo laborated the modular concept and the basic mentality to establish the finance index early-warning model. The research of application is most important part of the thesis. The thesis chose fifty Real Estate companies as the sample, took the 2005 financial report as the material, carried on remarkable examination to twenty-four indicators using SPSS, chose ten key early-warning indicators to construct the financial indivadul index. The thesis chose arrangement the 20th figure as financial early-warning marginal value for each...