Economic Analysis And Regulation Of The Real Estate Bubble On Shang Hai

In recent years, along with the economical fast development, our country's real estate industry also entered another round booming cycle, maintained continuously the high speed growth in many years, and it had became one of biggest industrial which have the greatest impact on the national economy. But the fast-growing real estate industry often bring bubbles, If you do not control the real estate bubble, this kind of bubble will be disillusioned during the recession will have the deathblow to the national economy. Therefore, the strengthening the real estate market bubble of the economic analysis and risk prevention has important theoretical and practical significance.This paper selected Shanghai, the most representative city in recent years to conduct the real estate bubble research. The paper begins with the correlated theories of the real estate bubble has to defined the category, and anatomizes the formation mechanism and its operational mechanism from certain aspects such as macroeconomic factors, micro-economic factors and non-market economic factors, on the base of the research results and experiences at home and abroad, the author also pointed out specially that the most direct reason for real estate hobble is the over speculation which is significant to understanding. Finally, based on large data of this area, the author discusses the harmful influences of bubble economy upon financial institutions, productivity, consumption and social stability, demonstrating the great damage of the real estate bubble economy and the possible risks.However, because the history of the real estate market development is relatively short, the marketability degree is quite low in our country; the study for the real estate bubble starts relatively late and the method of measuring real estate bubble is extremely rare, so the unified model to measure the real estate bubble has not been formed at present After analyzing the good and bad points of the research results, the author utilizes the index analysis method and the marginal revenue model to concrete analysis and computation of the bubble degree of Shanghai real estate market price from 1998 to2008 year, and the result demonstrate the development of Shanghai real estate bubble has hit the basic normal upper limit. If the suitable policy hasn't been implementing, the real estate market of Shanghai will have the overheated riskFinally, in view of the causes of Shanghai the real estate market bubble, the paper adopts the industrial policy theory as the instruction, proposed the corresponding industrial policy suggestion prevents and reduces this kind of harm. This part from the respective of the resources regulation, the land market intervention to point view, the paper proposes the methods and the policy measures of how to effectively melt with and guard the real estate bubble, points out that the government should using the methods of finance, tax, administration together to regulate the real estate market to prevent the further inflated bubble。The purpose of this research is causing people to has a clear understanding about the real estate market and the real estate bubble through the analysis of the Shanghai real estate bubble, so as to avoid or suppress its negative effects through the properly and timely control measures when the real estate bubble. This paper only the analysis of the real estate bubble in Shanghai, hoping for other regions also has some for reference.