Research On Price Fluctuation And Forecasting Of Cocoons In China

The cocoon silk industry is glorious traditional superiority industry in China, which include agriculture, labor, business, trade and so on. The cocoon silk industry has affected area broadly, the industrial chain length, the connection is strong, depend on for existence in a big way and so on. What is more important, the cocoon silk is the labor-intensive industry. The development of cocoon silk industry will help solving the employment of cities and countryside, enhancing the farmer's income. As only raw material of the cocoon silk industry, the fluctuation of silkworm cocoon price can directly cause the raw silk output, the price fluctuation, then the conduction to industrial chain each link, causes the profession undulation. Therefore, the silkworm cocoon price undulation and its the future trend will be affecting each person's nerve, will be closely linked with ours life.This article summarized the silkworm cocoon market characteristic, has obtained the silkworm price undulation rule, and discussed has caused the silkworm price undulation primary factor after reviewing new China to establish the later special reform and open policy later in the silkworm cocoon market development condition foundation. This article believed that, the countryside raises silkworms are dispersible, the small scale, seasonal, is the small farm management form. Therefore, the silkworm cocoon production and the supplies have, the home economics supplement, poly tropism and seasonal characteristic and so on the side occupation. Thus causes the silkworm cocoon the supply and the sale has the very big instability. Is same with other commodities, the silkworm cocoon price also is revolves the supply and demand but about to undulate. The silkworm cocoon market price assumes the periodic vibration and the undulation multiplicity. But causes the silkworm cocoon price undulation primary factor except with the producer, the operator and consumer's behavior with the choice related outside, rises in prices the spatial dislocation and the circulation system not perfectly has the very big relations, the national macroscopic policy as well as the policy sensitivity also has the very big connection.At the same time, this article in the analysis spider web model premise hypothesis and in the basic type foundation, unifies the Chinese silkworm cocoon market the particularity, the attempt constructs the Chinese silkworm cocoon market the spider web model. This article has carried on the preliminary analysis to the Chinese silkworm cocoon market price undulation, and the attempt makes the forecast. This article believed that Chinese silkworm cocoon price future change and adjustment factor close correlation. If time, the Chinese silkworm cocoon price will assume must swinging to restrain, after at once each year silkworm cocoon price will be able must the balanced undulation, but will be able to tend to in some level restrains; At that time, in the next several years time, the Chinese silkworm cocoon price will be able to maintain in the balanced price; At that time, Pass sum swinging to restrain, namely the Chinese silkworm cocoon price revolved about its value to undulate, but undulated the scope on the other hand wanted the dot, moreover could finally if the actual value tend to consistently; At that time, the next Chinese silkworm cocoon price will assume evenly swings, but the not balanced price, after at once each year Chinese silkworm cocoon price margin of fluctuation difference was not big, but was unable to pause in some price level; At that time, the next Chinese silkworm cocoon price will assume dispersing which swung, namely the disorder might follow, also the not balanced price, in this kind of situation Chinese silkworm cocoon price cannot be forecasted.