| Oil is a very important global strategy resource. It is very important to the development of modern economy. Oil, which is known as"black blood"plays a decisive role in modern industry. With the continuing rapid growth of China's economy, oil represents its increasing importance to the advancement of our national economy. In the past decades, China's fast development followed by huge consume of oil. For the future economic growth, no doubt that oil will become the bottleneck of China's economic development. Since the end of 90s, international oil price went on rising, and the world rubbing which cases related with oil are increasing. China's large import of oil arouses high concern outside and inside of the country. Follow that, Chinese oil problem becomes a very important subject to research. Aimed at supporting national economic sustainable development, the dissertation researches the petroleum industry from the view of whole economic and social environment.Due to its basic status, the oil industry has a strong correlation effect on downstream ones, such as petroleum coking industry, chemical raw materials products, transportation equipment manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing as well as transport sectors, and even the entire national economy. Therefore, research into the law of long-term demand for oil and implementing monitoring and prediction over oil industry can help the government and predict the direction of development of oil industry, and make wise industry polices for oil industry.There are four chapters in this thesis. The author set up VAR model, impulse response function and variance decomposition techniques to analyze the domino effect caused by impact on downstream industries and contribution rate from the downstream industries. And a preliminary discussion about the law of long-term demand based on the China's oil market is conducted.Chapter one depicts the present research of the situation of oil industry and analyzes the current development state of oil industry in China and its important influence on national economy. The dependency of Chinese economic growth on oil is advancing constantly, and the ratio of oil production accounting for the percentage of total energy production in 2006 rose to nearly 13%. At the same time, the downstream trades have so high dependence on oil and natural gas industry, which makes the latter become an important pillar in Chinese economy. However, due to the limited extraction capacity and oil reserves, the present oil production is far from meeting the needs of current and future economic development. So China takes two measures simultaneously: own exploitation and looking for partners actively, to protect the security of oil supply and seek favorable status in international competition.Chapter two analyzes and explains the vector autoregression (VAR) model, impulse response function and variance decomposition techniques. In the vector autoregressive model, we establish the date model which is based on the nature of the statistical data. Impulse response function described the influence which is brought by one variable. Variance decomposition gives a relative important information which is from the variable of the vector autoregression model.Chapter three mainly establishes models and methods on oil industry. We select the sales revenue of oil industry, petroleum coking industry, chemical manufacturing industry, transportation manufacturing industry and chemical fiber industry as parameter.Chapter four as the major of this paper has a positive analysis. It is based on the chapter two's model and method. After seasonal adjustment to date in a series and eliminating growth factors along with standardized processing, the author establishes the vector autoregression model and uses impulse response function and variance decomposition techniques to further analyze the domino system. A preliminary discussion about the law of long-term demand based on the China's oil market is conducted.The empirical research shows that the outside impact by the petroleum coking industry and chemical manufacturing industry will be passed on the oil industry through market with a persistent and steady influence in the same direction. The most apparent domino effect on oil industry is caused by the chemical manufacturing industry. In the future, among the downstream industries the greatest influence on oil industry also comes from chemical manufacturing industry with a contribution rate of 43%. The rate of the influence on oil industry comes from petroleum coking industry is 37%. The rate of the influence on oil industry comes from fiber manufacturing industry is 7%. The smallest comes from transportation manufacturing industry, only 0.35%.A conclusion is drawn that: in order to maintain a long-term and sustainable development in the oil industry, we must fix our eyes to the market and understand the influence of downstream industries on the demand for oil products. We must conduct market probe for the key oil products and adjust product structure in line with market demand.At the end of this thesis, through a comprehensive analysis above, we put forward suggestions to the development oil industry in China from supply demand and industrial policies so as to provide reference to setting down reasonable policy. |
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