Research On Evaluation Of EOR Exploit Project With Real Option Method

In our country, Every oil field enters the middle or later developing stage, while the percent of the water in crude oil is rising quickly. The oil field exploit crude oil with secondary recovery way has led to expensive production, and the survival of enterprise is bound to threaten. Long-term development is furthermore doubly difficult. In such circumstances, it need a new technique that is able to reduce crude oil cost of production. Right away, the EOR technology appears, conforming to the times need. From the earlier of the eighties , most oil fields of our country begin to throw into a fund studying this new technology. To 1990's, with rising further of the percent of the water in crude oil, part of oil fields (The victory oil field has reached profit and loss balance point border for instance) , the value that individual productive establishment product goes out of a well creates has already had no way to make up production cost , be forced to be in the state stopping production. Big oil fields have enlarged to extracting the EOR's test that the project investment dynamics is unparalleled, the technology have also had rapid progress for answering this aspect, every. The technology has all entered industrialization in all inland oil fields of the whole nation producing a stage , this technology output in the part of oil field has already accounted for to extracting oil at present, three time to have arrived at 20% all above of entire oil field gross product.The triple oil extraction technology has strategy significance to managing and development of petroleum enterprise,providing certain technology guarantee to enterprise's sustainable development. However, no matter oil field or the area piece, when apply the technology of the triple oil extraction, it must carry out the technology experiment, to verify that technology's adaptability and developing prospect in the oil field or area piece.Testing project of the triple oil extraction, which is a branch keeping separate accounts on economy .It is a key problem to appraise its economic effect, because it directly related to whether project can continue, whether technology of the triple oil extraction can be applied and disseminated. Therefore , choosing proper appraise method which is essential for economic effect of project, stimulating the application and dissemination of the triple oil extraction.Meanwhile , testing project of the triple oil extraction is a very complicated procedure, with various risk .including: restricts of macroscopic policy in country , changes of economy environment , science and technology, and the risk exists in management process etc. These big risks contain many subdividing types. For example, risk of changed economic environment, which contain the risk of crude oil fluctuations in prices, exchange rate and interest rate. One of the biggest risk which aroused by crude oil fluctuations in prices. Price of crude oil is one of the factors to decide the present value of bid assets. When certain amount of crude oil is extracted out, its changing condition can decided the value of bid assets directly.For testing project, unless the risk can be identified more well, then control and manage it. Otherwise, petroleum enterprise may possibly be confronted with bigger failure than the case of not making use of technology of the triple oil extraction. Research of testing project of the triple oil extraction started early, and the technology is already mature. But relatively less research of economic value testing have been carried out in our country , embodying in the appraising process which is over-simple, and appraising method is unitary (nearly all use NPV methods) , being short of a cognition about character of uncertainty on the testing project.Therefore, as to this high indefinite oil development projects, it is extremely important to choose a appropriate appraisal method. And real options, is able to make rational and scientific evaluation to high indefinite investment projects. Perhaps it will apply to high-risk, high indefinite project of the triple extracts oil testing.In view of the above question , this article embarks from three extractions experiments project technical process, along each stage of technical process, searching for each factor which influence economic efficiency of experiments project, then analyzed the function and influence of each factor, meanwhile with emphasis on analyzing several main influences factors. According to these analyses results of influence factor, obtains the indefinite characteristic about the triple extracts oil testing.Then, introduce thinking of real options, according to the uncertain nature of the project. The article mainly analyzes the type of Real Options and nature about the triple extracts oil testing project. Then physical parameters of the options have been described and estimated. Finally, through tree model of two forks to calculate a concrete triple extractions testing project , proving that Real Option can be used to prove the cost-effectiveness evaluation of the pilot project, it has a lot of advantages.