| 1. Background of choosing the topicThe industrial structure is the basis of a national economy, and with the development of both the economy-globalization and the regional economic integration, the research on the comparison and conversion of industrial structure must be interpreted in some specific region. Considering the comparatively free flow of the productive elements such as capital, technique and human resources, when we carry out some research on the industrial structure in one country, we should give attention to both the independence and relationship of its industrial structure.2. Putting forward the issueThere are three levels to interpret and compare the industrial structure, first, it is based on the comparison among different areas in a specific country; second, among different countries either under the global economy or under some region; third, the research is carried out among different regions such as North America FTA, European Union, and East Asia.The studies about the comparison of the industrial structure used to analyze the historical evolvement or to describe the present status through the analysis about the scale and direction of the international trade, FDI, and the transfer of technique. Taking East Asia for example, this paper is trying to found an index system that includes the inner and external characters at the middle level so that the system can give attention to both static status and dynamic development to make the study more canonical, rational and systematic. 3. Process of the researchAs set forth above, the system should reflect both the static status and dynamic transfer. The former is pointed to the present scale and level of the industrial structure as a result of the industrial structure evolvement and international division; the later will spread study through the transfer potential, transfer speed and transfer direction.3.1 Comparison about the present development status of the industrial structure.(1) Foundation of comparative index system There are three kinds of index that can reflect the present status of the industrial structure, those are, the direct index which embody the proportion of three industry sectors and their employment, the direct index which represent the economic growth, and the associated mechanism index which build the relation among the different countries in the some region. The system as follow: (2) Demonstration of East AsiaFirst, the construct validity of the table has past the test. The relativity of variables is low, and most of the absolute values of correlation is below 0.5, so we can come to the conclusion, the variables are rationally selected and the construct validity is good. Furthermore, there is no need to simplify the table because the FCA can eliminate the correlation of some variables that is high correlated.Second, the 4 principal factors from the FCA process that are used to replace the original 9 variables multiplying with the variance contribution produces the scores of 9 countries. So we can rank the countries degressively in the East Asia according to the scores, that is, Singapore, HK, Malaysia, Japan, Korea, Philippine, Thailand, China and Indonesia.Third, according to the Classify Analysis, the analogues of the industrial structure in East Asia include the Indonesia and Thailand, Japan and Korea, Singapore and Malaysia, however, China and HK are much different from others and couldn't be classified with them. Actually, China holds the comparatively complete industrial structure, to the contrary, HK does well in service industry and finance economy. Philippine is most close to Japan on the industrial structure and classified with Japan, Korea, Indonesia and Thailand.3.2 Comparison about the future transfer power of the industrial structure(1) Foundation of comparative index system The future transfer power of the industrial structure is consisted of transfer potential, transfer speed and transfer direction. The transfer potential is investigated by the house final consumption expenditure growth, gross fixed capital formation growth, foreign-trade dependenct degree, and the ratio of R&D sharing GDP; the transfer speed and the transfer direction will be evaluated by the expressions. The system as follow:(2) Demonstration of East AsiaFirst, according to the comparative research on the future transfer potential of the industrial structure, HK and Malaysia are most close to each other, and then Indonesia and Philippine, Japan and Korea also can be classified within one group; compared to the research on the present development status, China is found to have the analogue of the future transfer power earlier in the process of Classify Analysis. Second, the different degree of the future transfer power is not as distinct as the present development status, which has shown that with further development of industry in East Asia, the great gap among different industrial structure levels will be narrowed and the regional economy can grow more harmoniously.Third, the result of calculation has shown that W2 of China, Malaysia and Indonesia is growing, and the rate of value-added of industry sharing GDP are all above 45%, which explain the higher vibrancy of the second industry in economy. What is more, W2 of China, Korea, Thailand and Philippine is bigger than 1, which means that the growth rate of the second industry is higher than the entire national economy, the industrialized process in these countries is accelerating. China is the only country which is good at the two indexes of W2 so that China will play a more and more influencing role in East Asia.4. Conclusions and countermeasures of the research4.1 Adjusting the industrial structure to face the industry shift The new characters about the regional industry shift have taken on, and the regional range for the industrial adjustment is broadened under the new economic environment; the regional arrangement of industrial structure becomes more complex, the phenomenon of the industrial structure with hi-tech is universal.4.2 Constituting regional industrial policy and harmonizing the development of regional industryBy constituting regional industrial policy and harmonizing the development of regional industrial structure, we can stimulate the comparative advantages to complement each other, and enhance the efficiency and the pertinence with which the resources in the East Asia will be collocated, so that the status of the East Asia as a whole region will be heightened a new position.4.3 Accelerating the regional monetary and financial cooperation based on the hypo-region collaboration of industryWhen basing on the above demonstration about the classification of the East Asia's industrial structure, as well as considering the political factor and the locational relation, we could divide three hypo-regions of the East Asia, the Great China hypo-region including China, HK, Taiwan; the Southeast Asia hypo-region including the ASEAN4 and Singapore; the Northeast Asia hypo-region consisted of Japan and Korea.The classification of hypo-regions can supply a different reference for some middle stages, like the BBC (basket band crawling) stage, when we define the proper area before the final regional monetary and financial cooperation. |
PDF Full Text Request