Fluctuations Of Real Estate Price Under The Policy Influence

The real estate industry plays an important role in national economy, is related with GDP increase, and has great effect on economic development and social stability. But the real estate industry also cause price bubble, disturb the market order because of its connatural industrial risk. So, the rapidly healthy persistently development of real estate industry depends on the government's regulating and management. Since 2002, public concern are focus on persistently government's regulating accompany with high real estate price. Therefore, studying and researching on government regulating has great significance both theoretically and practically in judging of the results of real estate regulation.With the stand and clue of"Supply and demand that determines prices", this article, basing on the character of real estate supply and demand, classify and use qualitative and quantitive method to analysis 2002-2006 government's regulating and management policy by divided this article into six parts.Chapter one makes a general analysis on research background, methodology, and research content. Moreover, this chapter reviews prevenient article studying on real estate regulating. Many researchers focus on the real estate adjusting method by qualitative analysis, and lots of article discuss the reason of real estate problem but lack of economic base; Some quantitative analysis just focus on financial regulating policy, but less discuss on other policy or compare with multiple regulating policy, such as land policy. Most quantitative researches only analyze whether policy works, however, they didn't consider about policy's lag effect, durative and intensity.Chapter two is the theoretical analysis part. Firstly, this chapter analyzes factors affect on real estate supply and demand. The dominating factors affecting supply is land, loan, house price and anticipation; the chief factors affecting demand is population, housing loans, disposable income, house price and anticipation. Secondly, because of large quantity existing of speculators, this chapter discusses the special supply and demand phenomenon under speculative condition and got the results that speculations lead the false demand prosperity and push the house price rising rapidly.Chapter three classifies and uses qualitative method to analyze how the regulating policy impact on real estate market. Firstly, this chapter studies the regulating supply policy from land, housing supply structure, loans and anticipation etc. four aspects. Then, it investigates how government uses anticipation, housing loans and tax to regulate demand. Finally, compare the different effects between regulating supply and regulating demand. The research results show: more usage of supply regulating than demand regulating in the period from 2002 to 2006; more usage of administrative instruments than economic instruments. The impact on real estate can be concluded like this: the area of purchasing land shrunk as well as the money of purchasing land increased a lot; earnest and prepayments have been the highest percentage capital instead of domestic bank loans, the new problem of regulating source of funds in real estate market; elevating the rate of housing loan restrain speculative demand as well as consumptive demand; tax policy has a great effect on restrain speculative demand.Chapter four fix on SVR as the quantitative research model and determined"area of purchasing land per year","domestic bank loans"and"rate of housing loan"as the variable of the SVR model. For remedying the deficiencies of VAR model without any economic factors, this article chose SVAR model which can be estimated by added economic restriction. This SVAR model can solve the problem of indistinguishable effects when multiple policies happening together in qualitative research; remedy the deficiencies of focusing on financial policy only. Chapter five study on 2002-2006 China government regulating policy of real estate using quantitive method. After doing variable unit root test, establish four variable SVAR model to investigate the influence of regulating policy and draw some important conclusion. During the period from 2002 to 2006, supply regulating was more influencing than demand regulating; moreover, land regulating was the most influencing policy, it pushed the arising of housing price but not restrain it. Loan policy works, but it was less efficient and short shock to housing price. Elevating the rate of housing loan hardly influence housing price. Chapter six summarizes the entire conclusion and proposes how to strengthen government regulating on real estate. It involves that dealing different problem with different policies; attach importance to policies negative and positive effects; consummate real estate information dissemination principles to leading public correct anticipation. Indirect control methods should be used to control real estate, supplemented by administrative means.