The Bubble Monitoring And The Control Policy Research Of The Residence Market In Our Country

In China, the real estate industry has been playing an increasingly important role in the following aspects like promoting domestic consumption, increasing domestic demand, stimulating investment and keeping sustainable economic development since the Southeast Asia financial crisis in 1998.However, real estate market in our country begins to appear the superheating phenomenon since 2003; Severe control policy for the successive two years in 2005 and 2006 years, didn't repress the step of the housing price rising still, especially in the housing market. In order to prevent housing price bubble from further expansion and spread, we need to make a deep study of mechanism of the real estate bubble from the theory and practice, and investigation on operation mechanism of the control policy in the real estate market, especially in the residential market.For this reason, applying the economic theories of bubble economy, real estate etc., we study the inherent mechanism of the real estate bubble formation and the operation mechanism of the control policy, and obtain the mainly study result as follows:1. We build up vector error correction model (VEC) about Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Fixed Assets Investment (FI) and Real Estates Development Investment (HI). The analyzed results show: (1) The relationship between GDP and HI is different from the relationship between GDP and FI. (2) The impulse of HI wave is as same direction influence to GDP as the FI wave impulse. (3) GDP has more sensitivity responds to HI than FI impulse; HI wave have higher contribution degree to GDP than FI change. To two different investments, these provide important data in adjust orientation, adjust principle and adjust intensity in our macroeconomic control.2. We build up an analysis model of the speculate bubble, and elaborate speculative bubble's formation and inherent mechanisms on the basis of changes of model's parameters quantifying speculative behavior in real estate market. Based on these, we expand the random bubble model taking housing price as the central, and set up a random bubble system in which housing price and per capita living area are the core varieties. The inherent quantity relation in the model system provides efficient theoretic foundation examining bubble degree in real estate market. And make an experience analysis on the basic of these.3. We calculate residence market products structure's diverse influence strength to housing price through building up econometric model. The research results show that absurdity in residence structure pushed the housing price increase, and the housing price bubble is to the extent structure bubble.4. Applying the monopoly manufacture theories and the price leadership model, we research land agent behavior's transform on the two policy condition of quantification of the proportion in structure of residence supplies and credit qualification's adjustment for the land agent; And from the angel of the land agent, we will discover the mechanism of the housing price increase again. On the basic of these, we analyze effect about resources, social justice, real estate investment, economic cycle, social psychology and behavior.5. We conclude the correlation between the residential market wave cycle and policy cycle from 1991 to 2006 in our country real estate industry. Based on these, we comprised and analyzed the differences of two policy cycles from the angel of the real estate start-up, characteristics of adjust-control and results of adjust-control, discussed the direction, principle, means, policy orientation, and the items noticed of adjust-control in our real estate market, and expected to attain healthy steady development of our real estate market.