Research On Error Of Information Variability Of Supply And Demand On Supply Chain

Since the 1990's, supply chain management (SCM) has been becoming an important way to strengthen enterprises' competition. SCM can help to reduce production cost, give response quickly to customers' needs, make full use of exterior resource, and avoid the uncertainty in a sense. We must research and eliminate the errors in SCM in order to make all enterprises achieve a win-win situation. The problem of information variability in supply and demand (bullwhip effect) is a headache for every enterprise in SCM. It makes inventory backlog, production plans changes, additional costs increases. And it also makes the manufacturing capacity greater than the actual demand or can't meet the customer's demands and gives poor service because of the error information from the variability.This paper mainly researches the error eliminating of supply and demand information. We bring the ideas and methods of eliminating error theory according to the characteristic of bullwhip effect. Based on the analysis of the conflicts in supply chain and the bullwhip effect from these conflicts, it introduces the error information mainly comes from the error of information transfer. And the three elements in transformation process are information sources, information dissemination and information receivers. It makes bullwhip effect as long supply chain and the errors expanded when the information transfer. At the same time, this paper presents the concepts information field and information contents, descript the cross information in supply chain, and reflects the network structure of the supply chain.This paper analyses the system of supply and demand from the knowledge of eliminating error theory after analyzing the reasons of error information. It makes a regular system according to the national policy, law of economics, the regulations of profession field and the operation manual of machines. Then we establish the error function based on the regular and objects we studied. And write the error set and analyses it, then find a way to reduce the error information according to the error value. For the big and complex system as supply chain, we should first use the knowledge of system theory to decompose this big system to several subsystems. After decomposing this big system, we research the error of the subsystems. When the systems were identified, we list their error function and error set, then gradually achieves the objective of eliminating error in whole big system by the fuzzy operation and integration of all subsystems.