Mechanization Profit Portion Estimation In Agricultural Industry In Jinghe County

The estimation of Profit Portion on the mechanization in agricultural industry is not only useful to understand the development level, potential and the trend of agricultural mechanization, but also helpful to the government to make a strategic decision.This paper firstly illustrated the purpose and the importance, as well as the current national and international study tendency of this research. There by, assumed the main aspects of study and technique policy, which provides a solid foundation for the later development work. The mechanization profit portion in agricultural industry in Jinghe County from 1997 to 2004 was estimated quantitatively by the method of Cobb-Douglas production functions. During the estimation, this thesis got the regression model by using Visual Basic 6.0 version, because it was quite difficult to get the coefficient of every factor of output elasticity. Then the profit portion of mechanization in the plant produces industry in 2004 and in 1998 was estimated by another method of a comparison between mechanization and none mechanization. According to the characteristics of Jinghe County, factors analyses were used to analyze and the gray system theory, based on the data of statistics from 1997 to 2004, and combined with qualitative analysis, the prediction models of gross output value of agricultural products industry and of major agricultural production factors in Jinghe County were built and their products industry in the county was estimated.