Grain Production Early Warning

The grain production safety is the first defense line of food security. This text draws lessons from the relevant early warning theory and newest practice achievements both at home and abroad, has made research on basic theories and basic method of grain production safety pre-waming, set up the early warning index of grain-production and early warning model of grain production safety, and take three provinces in Northeast China as an example to carry on the positive research. While the grain production status of Northeast China is appraised, the change in regional grain-production have been predicted, thus the precautionary measures for the grain-production of the Northeast China is put forward.First of all, on the basis of understanding early warning concept and theory deeply, combining the domestic and international index of grain safety, the grain-production characteristic of study region and its special position in national grain-production, we have analyzed the grain-production state, and based on this, early warning index of grain production safety has been established suitably in the Northeast, and also the grain production safety model is structured. Secondly, take two ways, namely index pre-warning and model pre-warning respectively of early warning yellow method, to carry on the grain production safety early warning in the Northeast, that is to say, carry on pre-warning to the grain-production state through a group of indexes and early warning model respectively, and obtain the following conclusions finally:(1) It was the yield of grain per hectare that exerted a largest influence on grain gross output in the Northeast, consumption of chemical fertilizer, sown area of grain crops take second place, and the influence under the cultivated land area, irrigated area, rural electricity consumption, pesticide consumption, total power of agricultural machinery, consumption of plastic film and causing disaster rate reduces sequentially.(2) The analysis of the grain yield in Northeast China indicates that grain-production presents the periodic fluctuation growth with time pushing into, namely the average output of grain in each fluctuating cycle is increasing, which announces the general trend of Northeast China grain-production "increasing type development", and also has further confirmed the important position of Northeast China in national grain-production.(3) Establishment and application of grain production safety index. Select output of grain crops per capita and grain yield fluctuation coefficient, and adopt the grain production safety index, namely weighted sum of these indices, so as to reflect the grain-production state of three provinces in Northeast China. The confirmation of the threshold output of grain crops per capita is one innovation of this text.(4) Structure and application of grain production safety model. Seeing that it is the key of the grain production safety that the cultivated land is safe, the grain production safety model can be comprehensively considered from cultivated land quality and quantity, and be realized through the quality pre-warning and quantity pre-warning of the cultivated land. With GIS the space-time change data of three provinces in Northeast China can be obtained to reflect the change of regional cultivated land quantity and quality, and show the regional grain production safety state, and then explain this grain potential safety question caused by the change. Another innovation is that study the grain production safety from the quality and the quantity of regional cultivated land.(5) On the basis of the above-mentioned early warning indexes and models, according to regional practical production, the threshold of each index is confirmed and the early warning degree is fixed, and then the early warning research on the grain-production of three provinces in Northeast China has been carried on, the regional grain-production situation have been received. The result shows that: the grain-production safety degree of the two provinces Jilin and Liaoning in 2000 was lower than that in 2003, but the result is opposite in Heilongjiang Province, the grain-production safe degree of 2000 is higher than that in 2003; it is found that the rain-production safe coefficient of two provinces Heilongjiang and Liaoning in 2010 is higher than that in 2000 and 2003 while the rain-production safe coefficient of Jilin Province in 2010 is lower than that in 2003, higher than that in 2000.(6) Adopting the grain production safety index to carry on pre-warning, the method is simple, easy to use, and can reflect the state of regional grain-production, but it can not reflect the impact on grain production safety caused by the change of the cultivated land quality and quantity, and early warning indices and its weight accounted for need further study, while the early warning model of production safety of grain, have realized quality pre-warning and quantity pre-warning, namely it has considered the change of the grain yield from two respects of cultivated land quality and quantity, but it requires more data, calculates more complicated, and also need to verify the early warning model further. Finally, the thesis provides some suggestions of grain-production of the Northeast: protect cultivated land and hold grain sown area; strengthen the positive support of grain-production, improve the level of per unit area yield of grain further; protect and improve peasants' enthusiasm of planting grain in main producing region by every possible means.