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Demonstration Analysis Of Revenue In China

Posted on:2008-04-17Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y Z JiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2189360215478799Subject:Probability theory and mathematical statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Along with the rapid economic development and the enhancement of the comprehensive national strength, the life of urban and rural residents and the level of consumptions as well as the consumption environment have remarkably taken place. However, in the area of income distribution, there is an increasingly serious unfair distribution and the growing income gap between the situations. And the overall income gap, the income gap between urban and rural residents is the most important factor. In 2003, China's urban-rural income has reached 323:1, 2004 reach 321:1. Despite the decline, compared with the urban-rural income ratio 15:1 of the overwhelming majority of countries in the world, it is still at the highest level. In short, the negative financial impact on the income of farmers is the typical reflection of dual urban-rural economic structures ,which is not only unfair, but also widening the gap between the incomes of urban and rural residents Leading to the development of a new phase of the three rural issues in China's agriculture.Therefore, to study the state's financial income and the relationship between social factors and reasonable overall planning for urban and rural economic and social development, build a modern agriculture, develop the rural economy and increase farmers income, accelerate the process of urbanization, flourish the rural economy, integrate the building of a harmonious society is extremely important and of realistic and far-reaching historical significance. According to economic theory and the limitations of the data collected, the research is to identify some of the important factors affecting economic phenomena. This paper extracts revenue (billion), value-added agricultural production (billion), industrial added value (billion), construction industries (billion), population (10,000 people), total social consumption (million), the natural disaster affected area (Thousands of hectares )to conduct a close correlation analysis on China's economic growth.Taking the prevailing price of a currency's performance indicators into account, the year-to-year comparisons including price changes each year can not accurately reflect the increase or decrease in the amount of changes. So it is necessary to eliminate the factors of price changes .That can be a true reflection of economic development. When the index of the value of comparable prices is compared in different periods, the effect of price changes is deducted in order to indicate the changes in a precise volume. This paper first implements the comparable price for the conversion of raw data to eliminate the impact of inflated prices. Then the revenue is taken as a variable, other factors, variables. Based on the chart of the relationships between various economic variables, the most widely used application of the production function-Cobb-Dauglas (Cobb-Dauglas. called Cobb-Dauglas function) as a function of production revenue is adopted as the mathematical model to describe other factors. After using linear prediction and AIC square PRESS minimal criteria, taking additional information into consideration, the variables will be selected. According to the minimum projections square PRESS and the Akaike information criterion minimized, along with the other additional information, a wide range of regression analysis is to be carried out to select the optimal model. And the final consequence is to analyze the economic phenomena in China for 50 years.
Keywords/Search Tags:economic growth, price index, forecast square PRESS, AIC Guidelines, Linear Regression
PDF Full Text Request
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