The Research On Spatial Distribution And Infection Mechanism Of Real Estate Bubble In China

Real estate has double character of fictitious and real. The real character of real estate is essential. However, the real estate fictitious is the basis of the bubble of reale estate. A unities capital market is difficult to exist, because the land-fixed character of real estate. All markets is separate and independent. However, recent years, as capital flows between regions more and more smoothly, traffic condition gets better, and real estate investment spreads different regions easily, the land-fixed character of real estate market fade out gradually, which make it possible that the bubble of real estate be infected between different regions.The paper analyses the price of real estate in our country,and prove that it's possible the bubble of real estate be infected form littoral developed city to inland undeveloped city. So, on the base of rational bubble theory, this paper uses real price subtracted from hypothesis bubble in progress to basis economy variable. The empirical result shows that bubble of real estate is infected from the north to south, from the littoral developed city to inland cities. There are important relationship among the bubble expanding rate and the degree of the city opening to the outside and finance-developing level. The expanding rate of bubble in littoral developed cities'is obviously larger than inland cities'.On the base of Empirical results, the paper analyses the bubble infection mechanism among cities by building a supply-demand model, and finds that the agency's behavior is not rational during this progress. Therefore, according to behavior finance theory, this paper analyses these behaviors and find out various behavior deviation is just the key of the bubble infection of real estate, such as intuition drives, the frame dependence, Mass Behavior.Finally upon the above analysis, this paper picks up some measures to control the bubble infection of real estate.