Research On Measurement And Infection Mechanism Of Regional Real Estate Price Bubble In China

The real estate price is much concerned as its relationship with people's living condition in our country.Recently,the continuous rising of urban real estate price has attracted much attention,especially in the south-east coastal citys and some megapolis . There is also much controversy about whether the real estate price bubble is exist or not.This paper researched on the hot issue, measuring the bubble of real estate price and researching the infection of regional real estate bubble based on the panel data of 35 megapolis from 2001 to 2005, then gave some advice on controlling bubble and bubble infecting.This paper introduced theories of the real estate bubble and analyzed the formation reason of the bubble on the basis of a lot of existed literature. By introducing the model of Levin and Wright,this paper choosed the fixed effect model to measure the real estate bubble based on the panel data of 35 megapolis from 2001-2005, the results showed that the bubble size of urban prices and the level of prices didn't maintain consistency.Then the paper used dynamic panel data model to examine the correlation between regional bubbles.The empirical result indicated the bubble in the eastern had significant infection to other parts, but it was not significant of infection between northern cities and other parts;there was the most significant infection between cities within the eastern part.The paper also analyzed the condition of the regional bubble infection and how bubble infected by the effect of unreasonablities and herd behavior.Finally,it put forward some suggestion to control bubble from the way of changing market expectation.The main innovation of this paper lies on the following two aspects : firstly,it based on adaptable expectation to construct the model,and used the panel data to measure the bubble,then got the result of the 35 megapolis. Secondly,on the process of analyzing bubble infection, there was not only intuitionistic estimation and theory judgement,but also empirical analysis for controlling regional bubble infection.