The Analysis And Preventing Of The Real Estate Bubble Economy Of China

Since the 17th century, the bubble economy incidents had happened successively inthe western countries, For example, "the tulip craze" in Holland From 1636 to 1637,"Nanhai bubble" in English from 1719 to 1720, "Mississippi bubble" in Paris in 18thcentury, At the beginning of 1990's, breakdown of Japanese real estate economy bubblehad directly lead to the depression of its economy. In 1997, Southeast Asian economiccrisis had done great damages to economy of most countries of Southeast Asia evenglobal economy. Through researches of the bubble economy of Japan and SoutheastAsian economic crisis, the viewpoint that the real estate was one of the main carriers ofthe bubble economy had already been generally acknowledged. In China, the real estatebubble incident had happened in Hainan province from 1992 to 1993, which was mainlycaused by investment upsurge.At present, the study on real estate bubble of our country has already received theextensive attention, because both scholars of our country and our government have showgreat worry to investment upsurge and price booming of our real estate market. Ourstudies on bubble economy started relatively late and started at the beginning of the1990's, which mainly focused on the bubble economic theory, and, these researchesmainly introduced the foreign bubble mathematical model, which were used to analyzestock-market bubble of our securities market and Japanese Bubble Economy andSoutheast Asian financial crisis, but quite little study on real estate bubble of our country,the empirical research on real estate bubble of our country is more scarce.This paper focused on studying the real estate bubble of our country by method ofempirical research, adopted the way of theory combining with empirical research tojudge the real estate bubble of our country since 1991. Firstly, this paper had introducedthe characteristic of the real estate and development course of real estate of our country.Then it introduced theory research of bubble economy, and, analyzed the reasons andbreakout mechanism of real estate bubble, and, reviewed bubble economy incidents toillustrate the bad effects of bubble economy. In the empirical research, it firstlyconfirmed a group of indexes to judge the real estate bubble of our country then turnevery index into efficiency coefficient through the efficiency function and synthesizedthese efficiency coefficients and got a comprehensive appraisal value, which wasregarded as the base of judging real estate bubble of our country. In order to prove theseindexes were the reasonable influence factors of real estate bubble of our country, theway of measure analysis had been used to do regression analysis between every indexesand the real estate price. Finally it concluded that it had a real estate bubble in our realestate market, and also, it had carefully analyzed the reason of real estate bubble in thispaper and put forward many positive policy recommendations to deal with real estatebubbleIn general, this paper had explained real estate bubble of our country both throughtheory and through empirical research;meanwhile, it put forward disposal mechanism.This had put forward a new thinking of how to dispel the present real estate bubble andpromoted the sound development of the market of real estate of our country.