The Research On The Energy Demand Forecasting And The Energy Development Countermeasure In Guangdong Province

Being a kind of inevitable essential material foundation for the development of economy and society, energy gets more and more concern. Therefore, a well-designed strategy of energy development is a causal factor to the healthy, stable and sustainable development of economy. However, the modeling and analysis of energy demand is one of the fundamental elements of energy strategy planning.Because energy demand system is of complexity, based on the presentation of the concept of Energy Demand and the analysis about the actuality of energy consumption in Guangdong Province, this paper, firstly, respectively made use of grey forecasting, index smoothness and curve estimation to construct models depending on historical data of energy in Guangdong Province, as well as analyzed and compared the advantages with the disadvantages of these models. And then proposed the combination forecasting model by using dissociation coefficient to allocate the weights, and applied this kind of model to forecast energy demand in Guangdong Province between 2007 and 2015. Secondly, this paper made research on the main factors affecting the energy consume in Guangdong Province such as economic growth, industry structure, energy consume structure and so on. Finally, combining with the analysis and demonstration, this paper put forward some proposals about the development of energy in Guangdong Province: optimizing the industry structure, increasing the energy efficiency, consummating the market-oriented energy system, strengthening macroscopically control for supplying the safeguard of the energy sustainable development.