The Research On The Energy Demand And Supply Forecasting And The Energy Countermeasure In Jiangxi Province

Energy is the essential material foundation of national economy, and is also a hotspot of economic lifeline for which every country will fight in the future, energy has self-evident effects on the economic development. With the background of economic globalization, energy has become an important factor which constraints the economic development of countries all over the world, so the effective forecasting of energy demand is very important.In the first place, this thesis evaluated the present energy condition of Jiangxi Province, researched the relationship between energy and economy qualitatively. According to the relationship between energy supply and demand, this thesis analyzed the energy status quo in Jiangxi Province. Secondly, this thesis introduced the model constructing processes, testing methods, parameter selection and error evaluation criteria of gray model and Brown nonlinearity exponential smoothing model, state the research background, classification and weights calculation of combination forecasting model. Thirdly, this thesis used Matlab software to construct the GM (1,1) gray model and Brown nonlinear exponential smoothing model, forecasted the-energy demand and supply in Jiangxi Province between 2009 to 2020, then constructed the combination forecasting model which was based on the results of two models above, used standard deviation method to forecast the energy gap in Jiangxi Province between 2009 to 2020, discussed the accuracy of combination forecasting model which determined the feasibility of model. Finally, according to the energy characteristics of Jiangxi Province, this thesis combined the energy development strategy of United States, Britain, Germany and Japan to put forward some proposals about the development of energy in Jiangxi Province.