Research On Forecast Models Of M&A Synergy Value In Listed Companies

M&A is an important way of adjusting and reforming for corporations, and also is the effective approach of redistribution the society resources newly. The reason for corporations carrying out mergers is looking for synergy. The number of companies which participate in the mergers became larger recently. Some data indicates that many mergers haven't achieved the expectant level in view of the performance after the M&A. The bad performance had something to do with lacking synergy estimation before mergers. It's difficult to forecast synergy value of the synergy research, but it will offer important reference for making decisions of M&A, and there's no agreed model in this aspect. This thesis will improve the synergy value model in existence and will contrast the two models with the case. So it's of great academic and realism meaning to research the forecast synergy value of listed companies.The thesis primarily includes the following contents.①Summarizing the research situation home and abroad;②expounding the motives of M&A;③analyzing the source and influencing factors of synergy;④researching the DCF model;⑤improving the DCF model;⑥comparing with the two model results and alculating the performance to inspect the forecast synergy value. The paper researches the forecast ability of improved model with data of listed companies by qualitative and quantitative methodology such as DCF, EVA.The contributions of the thesis are:①improving the existed DCF model by establishing"inside and outside, parts and whole"method;②to test the forecast ability of improved model by estimating the performance before and after the merger. After the research, some conclusions were found: the forecast ability of improved model is better than the existed model in this case, achieved synergy can bring positive effect which can improve corporation's value and shareholders's fortune, and this effect may reduce with time. It's possible to affect the long-run development of the enterprise. So it's necessary to make decisions before merger using forecast model by estimating the least synergy value. At the same time, corporations should pay more attention to the value and performance, enhancing the competitiveness.