| The role, of the urban land prices is more significant in the contemporary city economic activities. The reasonable urban land prices not only adjust to optimize the urban industrial structure, attract foreign capital, ensure the stable development of the real estate market, control the size of cities, but also promote to the rational development of urbanization, raise the city's competitiveness. It said that the reasonable city land price has become a symbol of the healthy development of the city. However, the current urban land market was still in an imperfect stage, especially the development of urban land prices was at a disorder stage, In order to get the temporary interests, obtain funds for urban development, they took many non-rational policy of the land, This is not only lost a large number of urban land, waste the limited land resources, but also impact the urban Rational development. Although in recent years the state and the government has taken many measures to control the urban land price in a reasonable scope, but how to judge whether a city land price is rational, how much urban land price changes is reasonable and can be compatible with the city's economic development. The studies of the city reasonable premium was lacking in the current domestic. The current study in the domestic use the geographic information systems and combine with the large memory capacity and fast characteristics of computers to establish the monitoring system of urban land prices. Its purpose is mainly focused on how to accurately calculate the rapid growth of urban land price, and the changes in the urban economy growth. In China the judgment of the urban land price reasonable changes was though to observe and analysis the economic factors and the land prices of urban, compare the change rate of these indicators such as the urban land prices and urban economic growth, urban worker's average wage rate, investment growth in urban fixed asset, urban housing prices, and then depend on the experience to judge the reasonable changes of the urban land price. This assessment method was very simple, but if the indicators in the city itself were at the irrational changes stage, the resulting judgment of the city land prices is naturally unreasonable. Therefore, in such a backdrop to research the urban land prices reasonable judgment was more practical significance.This paper was based on the concept, took all the national cities as a system, using large numbers, through detailed analysis the subsystems to find the law of the change rate between the urban land prices and the urban economic development, the average wage changes rate of the urban workers and the changes of urban real estate market. Then again using the law to judge the reasonableness of the premium of the other cities; we would be able to achieve the purpose of accurately judging. The main methods as follows, first we selected the urban dries which change relatively stable of the cities economy, urban land prices and were similar of the functions of cities,urban industrial and the development was more perfect of urban land market as a reference, analysis the relationship between the city's comprehensive land price and the factors of the city's comprehensive land price , we could get the reasonable indicators factor system, use the Correlation Analysis to test the indicator system is reasonable, Remove the small correlation coefficient factors indicators. Secondly, using the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to method the city's comprehensive land indicators factors, We could have the different city's comprehensive score as a judge set, Use the regression analysis to identify the quantitative relationship of the reference cities between the city's comprehensive land piece and the city's comprehensive score and obtain the functional relationship .The function could be used to accurately judge a city's reasonable prices, to eliminate its own judgment error caused by rely on a city itself to judge it's land rational, Raising the city's reasonable to judge the accuracy of land price. Finally use reference system of the city rational land judgment. Judging the city's land price of Shanghai is reasonableness from 2003 to 2005, find that the Shanghai City's land price is at a reasonable extent in 2003 and 2004, but the urban land prices in 2005 is at an unreasonable stage, then compare the actual land price changes of Shanghai city. We can get the city's comprehensive land value theory is in line with the actual conditions of the Shanghai, and show that the approach is feasible and practical. It could provide accurate data for the urban land price policy to be formulated, improved land market, avoided the city deviated from the normal track because the speculative premium was existence, and made the city's economic, social and healthy development more reasonable. |
