The Study On The Early Warning Of Urban Land Price Based On Dynamic Monitoring For Urban Land Price

Land price is the barometer of supply and demand of land, the basic information of established land market, and important lever of adjusting land use. On one hand, land price offers foundation to make land management policy, and to regulate and control land price. On the other hand, land price offers important market information for the land investor and land user. Therefore, to make a comprehensive and objective evaluation for land market management and have accurate forecasting for development tendency, it is necessary to establish a feasible and realistic evaluation and early warning system.The establishment of dramatic monitor system for the land price in the city has offered a technique support to the study on the early warning of the land price. Based on the real situation of Changchun, using the theory and methods of economic early warning, the paper confirms"the land market is developing too fast, the land price is out of control"as the warning content, uses the research results of dramatic monitor of land price to set up the warning index system, gets the weighted index by the ingredient analysis method, gets the warning interval by the error analysis, gets the single index warning limit by the signal method in the economic warning theory, gets the warning extent by the comprehensive warning results, simulates and proves the warning extent by setting up the gray GM(1,1) model, and satisfies the purpose of land management in the new period finally.There exist three problems in the research on the early warning of land price among the scholars in our country. Firstly, in the process of early warning, the research just focuses on the forecasting, deviating the principle of early warning. Secondly, the research ignored the importance of establishing the warning index, and is short of the evidence to set up the index system. Thirdly, the research just makes a general judgment, without the reasonable analysis. I studied the previous projects carefully, and learned a lot from that, and I will improve on the following issues to guarantee the scientific results and availability to operate.1. Define the significance of early warning clearly, and outline the research clearly.Based on the theory of economic early warning, the paper defines the significant difference between forecasting and early warning. To explain simply, forecasting is the data analysis according to the statistic methods, and early warning is the monitor and forecast to the controlled object, the process of giving warning signal to the possible risk, through the sign information about the deviation from the normal limits. The early warning can not be studied without the establish of the whole system, which it is just a part of.According the theory and method of economic warning, the outline of the paper is: taking the fluctuation of land price as the object of study, the paper establish an index system which can inflect the change of land price, judge the possible abnormal tendency by the index data, and set up the clear limit to make the judgment about such extents that hot, mild hot, normal, mild cool, and extreme cool.2. Set up reasonable monitor and warning system for the land price.A scientific monitor and warning system for the land price is the firm base for the study of early warning. The study on the dramatic monitor of land price establishes a set of index system which is proved by theoretical and practical tests that covers the level of economic development, social development, the potential ability of land usage, and the matching level of the infrastructure. As the research results of dramatic monitor for the land price, the index system has the advantages of scientific, reasonable, standard and easy to operate, and can be applied in the study of monitor and forecast on land price.3. The choice of the method to judge the warning limit.The methods of experts'judge and empirical judgment both lack objectivity and preciseness. The paper uses the error analysis of 3δmethod, to analyze the index data which is normal distributed, and get the mathematical warning limit point to solve the limit of early warning of land price.4. Pay attention to the demonstrative analysis of theory, and define clearly the realistic significance of the research.After solving the difficulty about technique, the paper uses the city of Changchun as an example to analyze. The results of analysis suggests that the land price from 1995 to 2008 are generally rational, which is adaptive to the economic development. Using the gray analysis GM(1,1) model, through forecasting the land price from 2009 to 2013, the paper conclude that the land market of Changchun will develop stably.To make the research constructive, the paper emphasizes the realistic significanc of monitor and early warning of land price. Firstly, the paper applies the economic warning theory in the dramatic monitor of land price, which makes them connected with each other well, and becomes the development and innovation of theory and technique. Secondly, the warning forecast and the analysis of related index can guide the direction of investment, direct the policy and plan made by government, and offer scientific evidence to the choice-determining and land evaluation. Finally, the research results of monitor and early warning of land price can be important inference for the investors to avoid the possible risks, assures the market operate well, improves the communication and feedback between government and investors, and make a win-win situation.The paper studies on the dramatic monitor and early warning of land price, and the further studies require the long-term research and more statistic data. The establishment and improvement of dramatic monitor and early warning of land price are very important, I wish this paper can offer a significant help to Changchun land administration department.