Effect Of Land Reservation System On Land Price And Forecast Of Reasonable Reservation Scale

Land is the most important resource for human being.Limited availability of natural land leads to its limited supply,It's also to the physical premise of one city's survival and development.Limited availability of natural land leads to its limited supply. In order to control land market better and allocation of land resources reasonable,and to realize public land effect maximization,the first land reservation organization-Shanghai City land development center was established in 1996,since then many cities in our country establish an urban land reservation system.The land reservation system which operate on the following many aspects:It has became to protect the state ownership of the urban land recourse and its economical profit,and prevent the loss of state property;adjust to the land price;regulate land market,optimizing the allocation of land resources and to improve the urban land using structure and so on.Land Banking originate from Europe,and exist for more than one hundred years,but in China,urban land reservation system come along less than thirteen years and is still in its development and exploration stage.Furthermore,with neither a definite theory guidance and a mature-norm operating model,nor a complete policy and law supporting system,some problems have appeared during the management of the urban land reservation,which means there are still problems worthy of studying both theory and practice.Urban land reservation system is a innovation of the reformation of urban land using and it is significant that by researching and perfecting the urban land reservation system so as to promote the efficiency of urban land using and the urban construction.The effect of the price of land market in our country from carrying out the land reservation system.Under the circumstance of soaring land price in recent years,it tries to analyze the influence to our land market from the perspective of economics.At last,it gets the result that the reason of soaring real estate price is not to carry out the land reservation system,but the system is to embody the real land value,The rising of land price is reasonable;But on the other hand,because the laws and regulations is not perfect and artificial operation don't by standard and so on,for the problems above,in the end of the thesis,some advices are suggested to solve these problems.One purpose of establishing the city land reservation system is macroeconomic control of land market,ensure it's development healthy and stable.However,to make macroeconomic control better primary task is to have a good understanding and grasp of the land market,not only will clear market at present situation,but also to forecast the future development trends of the land market.The land reservation system has become the main tool by which many governments adjust to control the urban land.And the reserved land has become the main source that every place supplies land by bidding, auction and listing.Therefore,the reasonable scale of the land reservation determined is necessary.The paper predicted the reasonable land reservation scale based on grey prediction model.This article contains 5 parts.The first parts main introduce the background and significance of land reservation system in China,research methods and technical route of this article using.The second part summarize concept,features,purpose and typical pattern of the land reservation system in our country,further compare three typical patterns currently.The third part is important for this paper,discusses the land market supply-demand balance model,on this basis analyzed control measures of land market; from the factors price decision of land market,explain the influence of land supply-demand and land price,since land reservation system carried out.The fourth part, taking Kaifeng City for instance,forecast of reasonable reservation scale from 2008 to 2015 by applying,the grey prediction model,provide basis of land supply plan for relevant departments reference.The last part,conclude the problems of land price current urban land reservation system in our country and propose suggestions and solutions to the problems.